Press release of the Financial Stability Committee after its meeting on macroprudential supervision

Date of publication:

Warsaw, 27 June 2025

The meeting of the Financial Stability Committee on 27 June 2025 was attended by:

  • Artur Soboń, Member of the Management Board of Narodowy Bank Polski, as the Chair of the Committee,
  • Jurand Drop, Undersecretary of State at the Ministry of Finance,
  • Marcin Mikołajczyk, Deputy Chairman of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority,
  • Maciej Szczęsny, President of the Management Board of the Bank Guarantee Fund.

Performing its statutory duties, the Financial Stability Committee (FSC) passed a resolution in which it upheld its recommendation of 14 June 2024 for the Minister of Finance on the rate of the countercyclical capital buffer. The target countercyclical capital buffer rate recommended by the Committee is 2% with a gradual achievement of this level. In the first stage, the countercyclical buffer rate, introduced by way of regulation of the Minister of Finance[1] and applicable from 25 September 2025, amounts to 1%. The representative of the Minister of Finance accepted the recommendation and informed the Committee about the progress of the legislative work to prepare and issue a new ordinance that sets the rate of the countercyclical capital buffer at 2% after the lapse of 12 months from the date of publication of the ordinance, fulfilling the second stage of the Committee’s recommendation.

The Committee members discussed the sources of risk in the Polish financial system and its environment. The synthetic risk assessment indicator has slightly increased from the previous quarter. This is because the free credit sanction has been added to the list of vulnerabilities. The number of vulnerabilities has remained unchanged as the risk of vulnerabilities of certain financial institutions and of contagion has been removed from the list. The risk associated with the FX housing loan portfolio remains the most significant vulnerability in the Polish financial system. Geopolitical risk, the risk of WIBOR being undermined, the free credit sanction, and residential real estate (RRE) risk are next in the hierarchy of such vulnerabilities.

The analysis of current trends in the RRE market indicates that the last quarter saw a further halt in nominal and real housing price growth on the back of lower demand amid a simultaneous reduction in the supply of housing. The value of housing loans is growing at a moderate pace and their quality remains good. A gradual reduction of banks’ margins can be noticed.

The Committee took note of the information of the Office of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority on cyber risk in the financial system and the new responsibilities of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority as an organ competent for cyber security matters for the banking sector and the financial market infrastructures.

The Committee discussed the state of the banks’ preparations to comply with the Polish Financial Supervision Authority’s recommendation on the Long-term Funding Ratio (WFD). In this context, possible options for its modification were discussed.

The Committee accepted the Annual Report on Macroprudential Supervision Activity of the Financial Stability Committee 2024. The Chair of the Committee will submit the report to the Sejm of the Republic of Poland and it will be posted on the NBP website.

Implementing the recommendations of the European Systemic Risk Board, the FSC decided to submit the following to the Board:

  • information on the non-identification of relevant third countries for the purposes of recognising and setting the countercyclical capital buffer rate,
  • a cyclical report on the implementation of the recommendation on setting countercyclical buffer rates for the years 2022-2025,
  • a cyclical report on the implementation of the recommendation on the assessment of cross-border effects of and voluntary application of the reciprocity principle for the years 2023-2025.

and reviewed an analysis of the assessment of cross-border effects of Polish macroprudential instruments and the results of monitoring of the Polish banking sector’s exposures to Portugal.

The Committee took note of the review of the macroprudential policies pursued by individual countries and at the European Union level.

The next regular meeting of the FSC on macroprudential supervision has been scheduled for September 2025.

[1] Ordinance of the Minister of Finance of 18 September 2024 on the countercyclical buffer (Journal of Laws 2024, item 1400).