NBP Working Papers

The mission of the NBP Working Papers is to support and promote research in economics and finance, in particular in the field of macroeconomics, central banking and the functioning of the financial system

The mission of the NBP Working Papers is to support and promote research in economics and finance, in particular in the field of macroeconomics, central banking and the functioning of the financial system

No. 335
Joanna Niedźwiedzińska
Initial monetary policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in inflation targeting economies

No. 334
Michał Gradzewicz, Jakub Mućk
Unravelling the markups changes: the role of demand elasticity and concentration

No. 333
Michał Ledóchowski, Piotr Żuk
What drives portfolio capital inflows into emerging market economies? The role of the Fed’s and ECB’s balance sheet policies

No. 332
Jan Fidrmuc, Martin Hulényi, Olga Zajkowska
The elusive quest for the holy grail of an impact of EU funds on regional growth

No. 331
Zbigniew Polański, Mikołaj Szadkowski
Seigniorage and central banks’ financial results in times of unconventional monetary policy

No. 330
Oliver de Groot, Grzegorz Wesołowski
Business cycle implications of banking system heterogeneity and complexity

No. 329
Tomasz Chmielewski, Andrzej Kocięcki, Tomasz Łyziak, Jan Przystupa, Ewa Stanisławska, Małgorzata Walerych, Ewa Wróbel
Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland. What do we know in 2019?

No. 328
William A. Allen
Poland, the international monetary system and the Bank of England, 1921–1939

No. 327
Marcin Bielecki, Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa
Distributional consequences of conventional and unconventional monetary policy

No. 326
Paweł Baranowski, Wirginia Doryń, Tomasz Łyziak, Ewa Stanisławska
Words and deeds in managing expectations: empirical evidence on an inflation targeting economy

No. 325
Marcin Borsuk, Oskar Krzesicki
InSTA – integrated stress-testing approach at NBP. The past, present and future perspectives

No. 324
Jan Hagemejer, Aleksandra Hałka, Jacek Kotłowski
Global value chains and exchange rate pass-through: the role of non-linearities

No. 323
Paweł Baranowski, Hamza Bennani, Wirginia Doryń
Do ECB introductory statements help to predict monetary policy: evidence from tone analysis

No. 322
Paweł Strzelecki, Jakub Growiec, Robert Wyszyński
The contribution of immigration from Ukraine to economic growth in Poland

No. 321
Paweł Kopiec
Household heterogeneity and the value of government spending multiplier

No. 320
Kamila Kuziemska-Pawlak, Jakub Mućk
Structural current account benchmarks for the European Union countries: cross-section exploration

No. 319
Marcin Kolasa, Michał Rubaszek, Małgorzata Walerych
Are flexible working hours helpful in stabilizing unemployment?

No. 318
Hubert Gabrisch
The productivity puzzle and the Kaldor-Verdoorn law: the case of Central and Eastern Europe

No. 317
Ewa Wróbel
How to measure lending policy stance of commercial banks?

No. 316
George A. Matysiak, Krzysztof Olszewski
A panel analysis of Polish regional cities: residential price convergence in the primary market

No. 315
Anna Sznajderska, Mariusz Kapuściński
The spillover effects of Chinese economy on Southeast Asia and Oceania

No. 314
Magda Ciżkowicz-Pękała, Witold Grostal, Joanna Niedźwiedzińska, Elżbieta Skrzeszewska-Paczek, Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska, Grzegorz Wesołowski, Piotr Żuk
Three decades of inflation targeting

No. 313
Ewa Stanisławska, Maritta Paloviita, Tomasz Łyziak
Assessing reliability of aggregated inflation views in the European Commission Consumer Survey

No. 312
Piotr Bańbuła, Arkadiusz Kotuła, Agnieszka Paluch, Mateusz Pipień, Piotr Wdowiński
Optimal level of capital in the Polish banking sector

No. 311
Jakub Growiec, Peter McAdam, Jakub Mućk
On the optimal labor income share

No. 310
Marcin Hołda
Newspaper-based economic uncertainty indices for Poland

No. 309
Marcin Kolasa, Grzegorz Wesołowski
International spillovers of quantitative easing

No. 308
Claus Brand, Marcin Bielecki, Adrian Penalver
The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy

No. 307
Kristina Bluwstein, Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Paolo Gelain, Marcin Kolasa
Multi-period loans, occasionally binding constraints and monetary policy: a quantitative evaluation

No. 306
Beata K. Bierut, Piotr Dybka
Institutional determinants of export competitiveness among the EU countries: evidence from Bayesian model averaging

No. 305
Tomasz Chmielewski, Tomasz Łyziak, Ewa Stanisławska
Risk-taking channel – does it operate in the Polish banking sector?

No. 304
Michał Gradzewicz, Jakub Mućk
Globalization and the fall of markups

No. 303
Janusz Brzeszczyński, Jerzy Gajdka, Ali M. Kutan
Evolution of the impact of the interest rates changes announced by Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) on the financial markets in the high, medium and low level of interest rates environments in Poland

No. 302
Paweł Macias, Damian Stelmasiak
Food inflation nowcasting with web scraped data

No. 301
Ewa Stanisławska
Consumers’ perception of inflation in inflationary and deflationary environment

No. 300
Mariusz Kapuściński, Ilona Pietryka
The impact of the excess reserves of the banking sector on interest rates and money supply in Poland

No. 299
Joanna Niedźwiedzińska
Inflation Targeting. Institutional features of the strategy in practice

No. 298
Jan Babecký, Clémence Berson, Ludmila Fadejeva, Ana Lamo, Petra Marotzke, Fernando Martins, Paweł Strzelecki
Non-base wage components as a source of wage adaptability to shocks
Evidence from European firms, 2010–2013

No. 297
Christophe Godlewski, Dorota Skala, Laurent Weill
Is lending by Polish cooperative banks procyclical?
A multidimensional analysis of credit supply cyclicality in Polish cooperative banks – the country and regional perspective

No. 296
Paweł Kopiec
Employment prospects and the propagation of fiscal stimulus

No. 295
Jan Toporowski
Kalecki’s critique of wicksellianism and the miss-specification of negative interest rates

No. 294
Aleksandra Hałka, Grzegorz Szafrański
What core inflation indicators measure? Evidence from the European Union countries

No. 293
Marcin Kolasa
Equilibrium foreign currency mortgages

No. 292
Katalin Bodnár, Ludmila Fadejeva, Stefania Iordache, Liina Malk, Desislava Paskaleva, Jurga Pesliakaitė, Nataša Todorović Jemec, Peter Tóth, Robert Wyszyński
How do firms adjust to rises in the minimum wage? Survey evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

No. 291
Michał Gradzewicz
What happens when firms invest? Investment events and firm performance

No. 290
Krzysztof Gajewski, Alejandro Jara, Yujin Kang, Junghwan Mok, David Moreno, Dobromił Serwa
International spillovers of monetary policy: lessons from Chile, Korea, and Poland

No. 289
Ádám Banai, Nikolett Vágó
The effect of house prices on bank risk: empirical evidence from Hungary

No. 288
Ye Jin Heo
Population aging and housing prices: who are we calling old?

No. 287
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Jacek Kotłowski
International confidence spillovers and business cycles in small open economies

No. 286
Tomasz Chmielewski, Mariusz Kapuściński, Andrzej Kocięcki, Tomasz Łyziak, Jan Przystupa, Ewa Stanisławska, Ewa Wróbel
Monetary transmission mechanism in Poland What do we know in 2017?

No. 285
Oskar Kowalewski, Paweł Pisany
What drove the corporate bond markets in Asia after 1995?

No. 284
Marcin Bielecki, Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa
Demographics, monetary policy, and the zero lower bound

No. 283
Jan Hagemejer, Jakub Mućk
Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries
The role of exports and global value chains

No. 282
Marcin Kolasa, Michał Rubaszek
Does the foreign sector help forecast domestic variables in DSGE models?

No. 281
Aleksandra Kolasa
Macroeconomic consequences of the demographic and educational transition in Poland

No. 280
Paweł Kopiec
Interbank market turmoils and the macroeconomy

No. 279
Christian Groth, Jakub Growiec
Do Mincerian wage equations inform how schooling influences productivity?

No. 278
Tomasz Łyziak, Xuguang Simon Sheng
Disagreement in consumer inflation expectations

No. 277
Georgios P. Kouretas, Małgorzata Pawłowska
The impact of market structure of the banking sector on the growth of bank loans in the EU after the global financial crisis

No. 276
Michał Gradzewicz
How do savings of different agents respond to interest rate change?

No. 275
Paweł Borys, Paweł Doligalski, Paweł Kopiec
Labor market institutions in a shopping economy

No. 274
Marcin Flotyński
Basel III long-term liquidity standard in the context of the profitability of banks and volatility of their stock prices – quantitative analysis for the euro area

No. 273
Mariusz Kapuściński
How far does monetary policy reach? Evidence from factor-augmented vector autoregressions for Poland

No. 272
Renata Karkowska, Małgorzata Pawłowska
The concentration and bank stability in Central and Eastern European countries

No. 271
Jakub Mućk
Elasticity of substitution between labor and capital:
robust evidence from developed economies

No. 270
Anna Sznajderska
The role of China in the world economy: evidence from global VAR model

No. 269
Piotr Ciżkowicz, Bartosz Radzikowski, Andrzej Rzońca, Wiktor Wojciechowski
Fiscal devaluation and economic activity in the EU

No. 268
Łukasz Goczek, Dagmara Mycielska
Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports in the run-up to the EMU accession

No. 267
Karol Szafranek, Aleksandra Hałka
Determinants of low inflation in an emerging, small open economy. A comparison of aggregated and disaggregated approaches

No. 266
Dániel Baksa, István Kónya
Interest premium and economic growth: the case of CEE

No. 265
Jakub Growiec
Factor-specific technology choice

No. 264
Marcin Grela, Aleksandra Majchrowska, Tomasz Michałek, Jakub Mućk, Agnieszka Stążka-Gawrysiak, Grzegorz Tchorek, Marcin Wagner
Is Central and Eastern Europe converging towards the EU-15?

No. 263
Marcin Bielecki, Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski
Could the boom-bust in the eurozone periphery have been prevented?

No. 262
Karol Szafranek
Bagged artificial neural networks in forecasting inflation: An extensive comparison with current modelling frameworks

No. 261
Tomasz Łyziak, Maritta Paloviita
Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times

No. 260
Michele Ca’ Zorzi, Marcin Kolasa, Michał Rubaszek
Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models

No. 259
Valentina Meliciani, Grzegorz Tchorek
Global value chains, innovation and firms’ performance during the crisis

No. 258
Siem Jan Koopman, André Lucas, Marcin Zamojski
Dynamic term structure models with score-driven time-varying parameters: estimation and forecasting

No. 257
Piotr Bańbuła, Marcin Pietrzak
Early warning models of banking crises applicable to non-crisis countries

No. 256
Alessia Paccagnini
Forecasting with FAVAR: macroeconomic versus financial factors

No. 255
Filip Premik, Ewa Stanisławska
The impact of inflation expectations on Polish consumers’ spending and saving

No. 254
Jakub Borowski, Krystian Jaworski, Jakub Olipra
Economic, institutional and socio-cultural determinants of consumer credit in the context of monetary integration

No. 253
Amanda Michaud, Jacek Rothert
Inequality, fiscal policy, and business cycle anomalies in emerging markets

No. 252
Arkadiusz Florczak, Janusz Jabłonowski
Consumption over the life cycle in Poland

No. 251
Leon Podkaminer
Has trade been driving global economic growth?

No. 250
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Jacek Kotłowski
The nonlinear nature of country risk and its implications for DSGE models?

No. 249
Mariusz Kapuściński, Andrzej Kocięcki, Halina Kowalczyk, Tomasz Łyziak, Jan Przystupa, Ewa Stanisławska, Anna Sznajderska, Ewa Wróbel
Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland. What do we know in 2015?

No. 248
Beata K. Bierut, Kamila Kuziemska-Pawlak
Competitiveness and export performance of CEE countries

No. 247
Mariusz Kapuściński, Ewa Stanisławska
Interest rate pass-through in Poland since the global financial crisis

No. 246
Dobromił Serwa, Piotr Wdowiński
Macro-financial linkages in the Polish economy: combined impulse-response functions in SVAR models

No. 245
Mariusz Kapuściński
The role of bank balance sheets in monetary policy transmission. Evidence from Poland

No. 244
Milena Kabza, Konrad Kostrzewa
Prudential measures in dealing with capital flows – case of Poland

No. 243
Conference papers
The Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis – 2015 edition, vol. 1
The Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis – 2015 edition, vol. 2

No. 242
Grzegorz Wesołowski
Do long term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland

No. 241
Paweł Pońsko, Bartosz Rybaczyk
Fan chart – a tool for NBP’s monetary policy making

No. 240
Aleksandra Masłowska-Jokinen, Anna Matysek-Jędrych
“One size does not fit all” – institutional determinants of financial safety net effectiveness

No. 239
Karol Szafranek
Linking excessive disinflation and output movements in an emerging, small open economy. A hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve perspective

No. 238
Halina Kowalczyk, Ewa Stanisławska
Are experts’ probabilistic forecasts similar to the NBP projections?

No. 237
Mariusz Górajski, Dobromił Serwa, Zuzanna Wośko
Measuring expected time to default under stress conditions for corporate loans

No. 236
Marcin Kolasa
On the limits of macroprudential policy

No. 235
Tomasz Łyziak
The impact of financial crisis and low inflation environment on short-term inflation expectations in Poland

No. 234
Tomasz Łyziak
Do inflation expectations matter in a stylised New Keynesian model? The case of Poland

No. 233
Paweł Strzelecki, Robert Wyszyński
Poland’s labour market adjustment in times of economic slowdown – WDN3 survey results

No. 232
Aleksandra Hałka, Jacek Kotłowski
Global or domestic? Which shocks drive inflation in European small open economies?

No. 231
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski
Crisis, contagion and international policy spillovers under foreign ownership of banks

No. 230
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina
Why may large economies suffer more at the zero lower bound?

No. 229
Małgorzata Pawłowska
The impact of market structure and the business cycle on bank profitability: the role of foreign ownership. The case of Poland

No. 228
James Bullard, Jacek Suda
The stability of macroeconomic systems with Bayesian learners

No. 227
Michał Markun, Anna Mospan
Stationarity and persistence of the term premia in the Polish money market

No. 226
Mateusz Pipień, Sylwia Roszkowska
Returns to skills in Europe – same or different? The empirical importance of the systems of regressions approach

No. 225
Aleksandra Hałka, Grzegorz Szafrański
What common factors are driving inflation in CEE countries?

No. 224
Aleksandra Hałka
Lessons from the crisis. Did central banks do their homework?

No. 223
Aleksandra Hałka, Karol Szafranek
Whose inflation is it anyway? The inflation spillovers between the euro area and small open economies

No. 222
Łukasz Gątarek, Marcin Wojtowicz
The relation between sovereign credit default swap premium and banking sector risk in Poland

No. 221
Hamza Bennani, Etienne Farvaque, Piotr Stanek
FOMC members’ incentives to disagree: regional motives and background influences

No. 220
Małgorzata Skibińska
What drives the labour wedge? A comparison between CEE countries and the Euro Area

No. 219
Mateusz Pipień, Sylwia Roszkowska
Quarterly estimates of regional GDP in Poland – application of statistical inference of functions of parameters

No. 218
Piotr Denderski, Wojciech Paczos
Asymmetric financial integration bank ownership and monetary policy in emerging economies

No. 217
Hubert Bukowski
Fiscal consolidation as a self-fulfilling prophecy on fiscal multipliers

No. 216
Mariusz Kapuściński
Monetary policy and financial asset prices in Poland

No. 215
Piotr Ciżkowicz, Andrzej Rzońca, Andrzej Torój
In search for appropriate lower bound. Zero lower bound vs. positive lower bound under discretion and commitment

No. 214
Emanuel Gasteiger
Do heterogeneous expectations constitute a challenge for policy interaction?

No. 213
Karol Szafranek
Financialisation of the commodity markets. Conclusions from the VARX DCC GARCH

No. 212
Beata Bierut, Tomasz Chmielewski, Adam Głogowski, Andrzej Stopczyński, Sławomir Zajączkowski
Implementing Loan-To-Value and Debt-To-Income ratios: Learning from country experiences. The case of

No. 211
Jan Przystupa, Ewa Wróbel
Modelling less developed emerging markets: the case of monetary transmission in Tunisia

No. 210
Zuzanna Wośko
Modelling credit growth in commercial banks with the use of data from Senior Loan Officers Opinion Survey

No. 209
Grégory Levieuge, Yannick Lucotte, Sébastien Ringuedé
Central bank credibility and the expectations channel: Evidence based on a new credibility index

No. 208
Piotr Ciżkowicz, Magda Ciżkowicz-Pękała, Piotr Pękała, Andrzej Rzońca
The effects of special economic zones on employment and investment: spatial panel modelling perspective

No. 207
Anna Kosior, Michał Rubaszek, Kamil Wierus
On the importance of the dual labour market for a country within a monetary union

No. 206
Jacek Łaszek, Krzysztof Olszewski
The behaviour of housing developers and aggregate housing supply

No. 205
Małgorzata Pawłowska
Changes in the size and structure of the European Union banking sector – the role of competition between banks

No. 204
Jacek Kotłowski
Do central bank forecasts matter for professional forecasters?

No. 203
Piotr Ciżkowicz, Andrzej Rzońca, Rafał Trzeciakowski
Membership in the Euro area and fiscal sustainability. Analysis through panel fiscal reaction functions

No. 202
Luca Guerrieri, Matteo Iacoviello
Collateral constraints and macroeconomic asymmetries

No. 201
Jakub Growiec
Isoelastic elasticity of substitution production functions

No. 200
Michał Hulej, Grzegorz Grabek
Output gap measure based on survey data

No. 199
Marcin Kacperczyk, Jaromir Nosal, Luminita Stevens
Investor sophistication and capital income inequality

No. 198
Aurélien Leroy, Yannick Lucotte
Structural and cyclical determinants of bank interest rate pass-through in Eurozone

No. 197
Marta Widłak, Joanna Waszczuk, Krzysztof Olszewski
Spatial and hedonic analysis of house price dynamics in Warsaw

No. 196
Łukasz Goczek, Bartosz Witkowski
Determinants of non-cash payments

No. 195
Jakub Growiec
On the modeling of size distributions when technologies are complex

No. 194
Marcin Kolasa, Michał Rubaszek
How frequently should we re-estimate DSGE models?

No. 193
Grzegorz Wesołowski
To believe or not to believe: monetary policy and the trend in house prices

No. 192
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Paolo Gelain, Marcin Kolasa
Monetary and macroprudential policy with multiperiod loans

No. 191
Piotr Białowolski, Tomasz Kuszewski, Bartosz Witkowski
Dynamic factor models & Bayesian averaging of classical estimates in forecasting macroeconomic indicators with application of survey data

No. 190
Margarita Rubio
Rented vs. owner-occupied housing and monetary policy

No. 189
Gonzalo Camba-Méndez, Konrad Kostrzewa, Anna Mospan, Dobromił Serwa
Pricing sovereign credit risk of an emerging market

No. 188
Piotr Ciżkowicz, Michał Kowalczuk, Andrzej Rzońca
Heterogeneous determinants of local unemployment in Poland

No. 187
Janusz Jabłonowski, Christoph Müller
A fiscal outlook for Poland: Update 2014

No. 186
Michał Gradzewicz, Jakub Growiec, Marcin Kolasa, Łukasz Postek, Paweł Strzelecki
Poland’s exceptional performance during the world economic crisis: New growth accounting evidence

No. 185
Gonzalo Camba-Méndez, Dobromił Serwa
Market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis

No. 184
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski
Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans

No. 183
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Jacek Kotłowski, Kamil Wierus
Can interest rate spreads stabilize the euro area?

No. 182
Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis, 2013, volume 1 
Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis, 2013, volume 2

No. 181
Dariusz Gatarek, Juliusz Jabłecki
Estimating the risk of joint defaults: an application to central bank collateralized lending operations

No. 180
Mariusz Kapuściński, Tomasz Łyziak, Jan Przystupa, Ewa Stanisławska, Anna Sznajderska, Ewa Wróbel
Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland What do we know in 2013?

No. 179
Ewa Stanisławska
Interest rate pass-through in Poland. Evidence from individual bank data

No. 178
Tomasz Łyziak
Inflation expectations in Poland, 2001–2013. Measurement and macroeconomic testing

No. 177
Christopher F Baum, Margarita Karpava, Dorothea Schäfer, Andreas Stephan
Credit rating agency downgrades and the Eurozone sovereign debt crises

No. 176
Taneli Mäkinen, Björn Ohl
Information acquisition and learning from prices over the business cycle

No. 175
Katarzyna Growiec, Jakub Growiec
The impact of bridging and bonding social capital on individual earnings: Evidence for an inverted U

No. 174
Grażyna Baldowska, Robert Leszczyński, Barbara Myszkowska
Convergence and differentiation processes in local markets and structural changes (comparison of 16 markets in Poland)

No. 173
Andrzej Cieślik, Jan Jakub Michałek
The propensity to exports and the membership in the Economic and Monetary Union of Central and Eastern European Countries: the micro-econometric firm level analysis

No. 172
Małgorzata Pawłowska, Dobromił Serwa, Sławomir Zajączkowski
International transmission of liquidity shocks between parent banks and their affiliates: the host country perspective

No. 171
Aurélien Leroy, Yannick Lucotte
Heterogeneous monetary transmission process in the Eurozone: Does banking competition matter?

No. 170
Andrzej Kocięcki, Marcin Kolasa
Global identification of linearized DSGE models

No. 169
Michał Adam, Piotr Bańbuła, Michał Markun
Dependence and contagion between asset prices in Poland and abroad. A copula approach

No. 168
Alfred A. Haug, Tomasz Jędrzejowicz, Anna Sznajderska
Combining monetary and fiscal policy in an SVAR for a small open economy

No. 167
Marcin Humanicki, Robert Kelm, Krzysztof Olszewski
Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Portfolio Investment in the contemporary globalized world: should they be still treated separately?

No. 166
Sylwester Kozak
Consolidation of the banking sector in Poland in 1989-2013 in comparison with the structural changes of the banking sector in the USA and the EU

No. 165
Mariusz Próchniak, Bartosz Witkowski
The analysis of the impact of regulatory environment on the pace of economic growth of the world countries according to the Bayesian Model Averaging

No. 164
Hanna Augustyniak, Jacek Łaszek, Krzysztof Olszewski, Joanna Waszczuk
To rent or to buy – analysis of housing tenure choice determined by housing policy

No. 163
Karolina Konopczak
The Balassa-Samuelson effect and the channels of its absorption in the Central and Eastern European Countries

No. 162
Tomasz Łyziak
A note on central bank transparency and credibility in Poland

No. 161
Paweł Borys, Piotr Ciżkowicz, Andrzej Rzońca
Panel data evidence on the effects of fiscal impulses in the EU New Member States

No. 160
Aleksandra Hałka, Tomasz Łyziak
How to define the Consumer Perceived Price Index? The case of Poland

No. 159
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa’ Krzysztof Makarski
A penalty function approach to occasionally binding credit constraints

No. 158
Maciej Albinowski, Piotr Ciżkowicz, Andrzej Rzońca
Links between the trust in the ECB and its interest rate policy

No. 157
Halina Kowalczyk
Inflation fan charts and different dimensions of uncertainty. What if macroeconomic uncertainty is high?

No. 156
Marcin Kolasa
Business cycles in EU new member states: How and why are they different?

No. 155
Stefan Kawalec, Ernest Pytlarczyk
Controlled dismantlement of the Eurozone: A proposal for a New European Monetary System and a new role for the European Central Bank

No. 154
Etienne Farvaque, Piotr Stanek, Stephane Vigeant
On the performance of Monetary Policy Committees

No. 153
Eva A. Arnold
The role of data revisions and disagreement in professional forecasts

No. 152
Aleksandra Hałka, Jacek Kotłowski
Does domestic output gap matter for inflation in a small open economy?

No. 151
Mateusz Pipień
Orthogonal Transformation of Coordinates in Copula M-GARCH Models – Bayesian analysis for WIG20 spot and futures returns

No. 150
Dariusz Gatarek, Juliusz Jabłecki
A model for dependent defaults and pricing contingent claims with counterparty risk

No. 149
Dorota Skała
The influence of regulatory and institutional framework and shareholder structure upon risk of financial institutions in Central Europe

No. 148
Andrei Sirchenko
A model for ordinal responses with an application to policy interest rate

No. 147
Michał Brzeziński
Income polarization and economic growth

No. 146
Marek Kośny, Maria Piotrowska
Economic security of households and their savings and credits

No. 145
Janusz Jabłonowski, Christoph Müller
3 sides of 1 coin – Long-term Fiscal Stability, Adequacy and Intergenerational Redistribution of the reformed Old-age Pension System in Poland

No. 144
Grzegorz Grabek, Bohdan Kłos
Unemployment in the Estimated New Keynesian SoePL-2012 DSGE Model

No. 143
Hanna Augustyniak, Jacek Łaszek, Krzysztof Olszewski, Joanna Waszczuk
Modelling of cycles in the residential real estate market – interactions between the primary and the secondary market and multiplier effects

No. 142
Halina Kowalczyk, Tomasz Łyziak, Ewa Stanisławska
A new approach to probabilistic surveys of professional forecasters and its application in the monetary policy context

No. 141
Jaromir Nosal, Guillermo Ordonez
Uncertainty as commitment

No. 140
Maritta Paloviita, Matti Viren
Are individual survey expectations internally consistent?

No. 139
Rafał Sieradzki
Does it pay to invest in IPOs? Evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange

No. 138
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski
Macroprudential policy and imbalances in the euro area

No. 137
Mariusz Próchniak, Bartosz Witkowski
Real economic convergence and the impact of monetary policy on economic growth of the EU countries: The analysis of time stability and the identification of major turning points based on the Bayesian methods

No. 136
Marcin Wolski
Monetary policy, banking and heterogeneous agents

No. 135
Tomasz Łyziak, Jan Przystupa, Anna Sznajderska, Ewa Wróbel
Money in monetary policy
Information variable? Channel of monetary transmission? What is its role in Poland?

No. 134
Jakub Growiec, Christian Groth
On aggregating human capital across heterogeneous cohorts

No. 133
Aleksandra Kolasa
Life cycle income and consumption patterns in transition

No. 132
Krzysztof Olszewski
The impact of commercial real estate on the financial sector, its tracking by central banks and some recommendations for the macro-financial stability policy of central banks

No. 131
Ewa Miklaszewska, Katarzyna Mikołajczyk, Małgorzata Pawłowska
The consequences of post-crisis regulatory architecture for banks in Central Eastern Europe

No. 130
Małgorzata Pawłowska
Competition, concentration and foreign capital in the Polish banking sector (prior and during the financial crisis)

No. 129
Jakub Growiec
Factor-augmenting technology choice and monopolistic competition

No. 128
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Krzysztof Makarski, Grzegorz Wesołowski
Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?

No. 127
Jakub Mućk, Paweł Skrzypczyński
Can we beat the random walk in forecasting CEE exchange rates?

No. 126André K. Anundsen
Econometric regime shifts and the US subprime bubble

No. 125
Anna Sznajderska
On asymmetric effects in a monetary policy rule. The case of Poland

No. 124
Błażej Mazur, Mateusz Pipień
On the empirical importance of periodicity in the volatility of financial time series

No. 123
Michele Ca‘ Zorzi, Michał Rubaszek
Real exchange rate forecasting: a calibrated half-life PPP model can beat the random walk

No. 122
Luca Marchiori, Olivier Pierrard, Henri R. Sneessens
Aging, labour market dynamics and fiscal imbalances

No. 121
Jan Hagemejer, Piotr Popowski
The distribution of monopolistic markups in the Polish economy

No. 120
Janusz Brzeszczyński, Martin T. Bohl, Dobromił Serwa
Large capital inflows and stock returns in a thin market

No. 119
Bartosz Gębka, Dobromił Serwa
Liquidity needs, private information, feedback trading: verifying motives to trade

No. 118
Andrzej Cieślik, Jan Jakub Michałek, Jerzy Mycielski
Consequences of the euro adoption by Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries for their trade flows

No. 117
Kazimierz Łaski, Jerzy Osiatyński, Jolanta Zięba
Fiscal multipliers and factors of growth in Poland and the Czech Republic in 2009

No. 116
Oksana Demchuk, Tomasz Łyziak, Jan Przystupa, Anna Sznajderska, Ewa Wróbel
Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland. What do we know in 2011?

No. 115
Tomasz Łyziak
Inflation expectations in Poland

No. 114
Anna Sznajderska
On the empirical evidence of asymmetry effects in the interest rate pass-through in Poland

No. 113
Katarzyna B. Budnik
Do those who stay work less? On the impact of emigration on the measured TFP in Poland

No. 112
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Jacek Kotłowski, Agata Miśkowiec
How forward looking are central banks? Some evidence from their forecasts

No. 111
Piotr J. Krupa, Paweł Skrzypczyński
Are business cycles in the US and emerging economies synchronized?

No. 110
Rafael Gerke, Magnus Jonsson, Martin Kliem, Marcin Kolasa, Pierre Lafourcade, Alberto Locarno, Krzysztof Makarski, Peter McAdam
Assessing macro-financial linkages: a model comparison exercise

No. 109
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa
Bayesian evaluation of DSGE models with financial frictions

No. 108
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Jacek Kotłowski
Measuring the natural yield curve

No. 107
Łukasz Lenart, Mateusz Pipień
Almost periodically correlated time series in business fluctuations analysis

No. 106
Jordi Galí, Frank Smets, Rafael Wouters
Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model

No. 105
Magdalena Szyszko
The interdependences of central bank’s forecasts and economic agents inflation expectations. Empirical study 

No. 104
Katarzyna Bień-Barkowska
Multistate asymmetric ACD model: an application to order dynamics in the EUR/PLN spot market

No. 103
Agnieszka Stążka-Gawrysiak
Poland on the road to the euro: How serious is the risk of boom-bust cycles after the euro adoption? An empirical analysis

No. 102
Jakub Growiec, Anna Pajor, Dorota Pelle, Artur Prędki
The shape of aggregate production functions: evidence from estimates of the World Technology Frontier

No. 101
Grzegorz Grabek, Bohdan Kłos, Grzegorz Koloch
Skew-normal shocks in the linear state space form DSGE model

No. 100
Piotr Białowolski
Forecasting inflation with consumer survey data – application of multi-group confirmatory factor analysis to elimination of the general sentiment factor

No. 99
Dobromił Serwa
Identifying multiple regimes in the model of credit to households

No. 98
Jakub Growiec
A microfoundation for normalized CES production functions with factor-augmenting technical change

No. 97
Oskar Kowalewski
When are multinational banks getting a bang for their buck on their subsidiaries abroad?

No. 96
Łukasz Hardt
Conceptualizing interdependences between regulatory and monetary policies. Some preliminary considerations

No. 95
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, Grzegorz Koloch, Krzysztof Makarski, Michał Rubaszek
Monetary policy in a non-representative agent economy: A survey

No. 94
Katarzyna Growiec, Jakub Growiec
Trusting only whom you know, knowing only whom you trust: the joint impact of social capital and trust on individuals’ economic performance and happiness in CEE countries

No. 93
Benjamin Born, Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher
Central bank communication on financial stability

No. 92
Michał Rubaszek, Dobromił Serwa
Determinants of credit to households in a life-cycle model

No. 91
Marcin Kolasa, Giovanni Lombardo
Financial frictions and optimal monetary policy in an open economy

No. 90
Katarzyna B. Budnik
Emigration Triggers: International Migration of Polish Workers between 1994 and 2009

No. 89
Katarzyna B. Budnik
Temporary Migration in Theories of International Mobility of Labour

No. 88
Andrzej Kocięcki
Algebraic Theory of Indentification in Parametric Models

No. 87
Andrzej Kocięcki, Marcin Kolasa, Michał Rubaszek
Predictivistic Bayesian Forecasting System

No. 86
Andrzej Torój
Competitiveness channel in Poland and Slovakia: a pre-EMU DSGE analysis

No. 85
Janusz Jabłonowski, Christoph Müller, Bernd Raffelhüschen
A fiscal outlook for Poland using Generational Accounts

No. 84
Marcin Hołda, Katarzyna Saczuk, Paweł Strzelecki, Robert Wyszyński
Settlers and Guests – Determinants of the Plans of Return Migration from UK and Ireland to Poland in the Period 2007-2009

No. 83
Grzegorz Grabek, Bohdan Kłos, Grzegorz Koloch
SOE PL 2009 – An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Policy Analysis And Forecasting

No. 82
Aleksandra Parteka, Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz
Market Size, Competitiveness and Technological Frontier – the Impact of Trade Integration with the UE on Productivity in Polish Manufacturing Sectors

No. 81
Michał Rubaszek, Paweł Skrzypczyński, Grzegorz Koloch
Forecasting the Polish zloty with non-linear models

No. 80
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski
The anatomy of standard DSGE models with financial frictions

No. 79
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Pascal Jacquinot, Marcin Kolasa
Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession?

No. 70
Tomasz Daras, Jan Hagemejer
The long run-effects of the Poland’s accession to the eurozone

No. 69
Jakub Growiec
Determinants of the Labor Share: Evidence from a Panel of Firms

No. 68
Jakub Growiec
Knife-Edge Conditions in the Modeling of Long-Run Growth Regularities

No. 67
Aneta Hryckiewicz
Pension reform, institutional investors’ growth and stock market development in the developing countries: does it function?

No. 66
Michael Ehrmann, David Sondermann
The reception of public signals in financial markets – what if central bank communication becomes stale?

No. 65
Vadym Lepetyuk, Christian A. Stoltenberg
Policy Announcements and Welfare

No. 64
Katarzyna Budnik, Michał Greszta, Michał Hulej, Oskar Krzesicki, Róża Lewińska, Karol Murawski, Michał Rot, Bartosz Rybaczyk
An update of the macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD

No. 63
Krzysztof Makarski
Dollarization as a Signaling Device

No. 62
Katarzyna Budnik, Michał Greszta, Michał Hulej, Marcin Kolasa, Karol Murawski, Michał Rot, Bartosz Rybaczyk, Magdalena Tarnicka
The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy

No. 61
Joanna Tyrowicz
When Eastern Labour Markets Enter Western Europe. CEECs Labour Market Institutions upon Euro Zone Accession

No. 60
Krzysztof Cichy
Human Capital and Technological Progress as the Determinants of Economic Growth

No. 59
Konrad Szeląg
Recent Reforms of the Deposit Insurance System in the United States: Reasons, Results, and Recommendations for the European Union

No. 58
Michał Gradzewicz, Krzysztof Makarski
The Macroeconomic Effects of Losing Autonomous Monetary Policy after the Euro Adoption in Poland

No. 57
Michał Gradzewicz
Endogenous growth mechanism as a source of medium term fluctuations in the labor market. Application to the US economy

No. 56
Gabor P. Kiss, Tomasz Jędrzejowicz, Jana Jirsakova
How to measure tax burden in an internationally comparable way?

No. 55
Joanna Bęza-Bojanowska, Ronald MacDonald
The Behavioural Zloty/Euro Equilibrium Exchange Rate

No. 54
Andrzej Torój
Macroeconomic adjustment and heterogeneity in the euro area

No. 38
Jan Przystupa, Ewa Wróbel
Looking for an Optimal Monetary Policy Rule: The case of Poland under IT Framework

No. 37
Tomasz Łyziak, Ewa Stanisławska
Consumer inflation expectations. Survey questions and quantification methods – the case of Poland

No. 36
Tatiana Fic, Marcin Kolasa, Adam Kot, Karol Murawski, Michał Rubaszek, Magdalena Tarnicka
ECMOD Model of the Polish Economy

No. 35
M. Rubaszek
Fundamental equilibrium exchange rate for the Polish zloty

No. 34
A. Pawlikowski
The Polish deposit insurance scheme compared to arrangements adopted in other EU countries

No. 33
D.Tymoczko
The future of Central Banking in the Changing Financial Environment

No. 32
M.Pawłowska
Competition, Concentration, Efficiency and their Relationship in the Polish Banking Sector

No. 31
B.Kłos, R.Kokoszczyński, T.Łyziak, J.Przystupa, E.Wróbel
Structural Econometric Models in Forecasting Inflation at the National Bank of Poland

No. 30
W.Mroczek, M.Rubaszek
Development of the trade links between Poland and the European Union in the years 1992 – 2002

No. 29
M.Pawłowska
The Impact of M&A on Technical Efficiency, Scale Efficiency and Productivity Change in the Polish Banking Sector: a Non-Parametric Approach

No. 28
 A.Koronowski
Remarks on models of currency crises and the existance of multiple equilibria

No. 27
M.Brzoza-Brzezina
Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest: A SVAR Approach

No. 26
T.Łyziak
Monetary transmission mechanism in Poland. The strength and delays

No. 25
J.Przystupa
The exchange rate in the monetary transmission mechanism

No. 24
E.Wróbel, M.Pawłowska
Monetary transmission in Poland: some evidence on interest rate and credit channels

No. 23
M.Brzoza-Brzezina
The Relationship between Real Interest Rates and Inflation

No. 22
Ch.Hurlin, R.Kierzenkowski
A Theoretical and Empirical Assessment of the Bank Lending Channel and loan Market Disequilibrium in Poland

No. 21
M.Rubaszek
Modeling fundamentals for forecasting portfolio inflows to Poland


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The mission of the NBP Working Papers is to support and promote research in economics and finance, in particular in the field of macroeconomics, central banking and the functioning of the financial system.

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