Forecasting model of NBP | NECMOD
NECMOD is the NBP’s main forecasting model. It is a structural macroeconometric model designed to describe the Polish economyNECMOD is the NBP’s main forecasting model. It is a structural macroeconometric model designed to describe the Polish economy
NECMOD is the NBP’s main forecasting model. It is a structural macroeconometric model designed to describe the Polish economy, on which the inflation and GDP projection published in the fourth chapter of Inflation Report is based. The NECMOD model was developed in 2008 as a result of many far-going refinements introduced to the ECMOD model (see a table below). The current structure of the model is presented in the following scheme.
The reestimation of the NECMOD model is carried out once a year, before the July projection round – the last one took place in May 2019.
The following table contains files with documentation of subsequent forecasting models of NBP, together with their updates: NECMOD (from 2008), ECMOD (years 2005-2008), MSMI (jointly with NSA – years 2003-2005) and NSA (years 2000-2003).
NECMOD model
| Year | Link | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Re-estimation of NECMOD model | Respecification of labour participation block. |
| 2011 | Re-estimation of NECMOD model | Changes to prices block. Including the hysteresis. |
| 2010 | Re-estimation of NECMOD model | Changes to prices block. New corporate investment equation. |
| 2009 | Re-estimation of NECMOD model Re-estimation of NECMOD model – presentation | Changes to the foreign trade block. |
| 2008 | A description of NECMOD model NECMOD model – presentation | The first version of the NECMOD model. Changes to the ECMOD model include: more complex labour market structure, incorporation of inflation expectations, breakdown of gross fixed capital formation (into private, public and residential), implementation of the housing block modelled both from demand and supply side, changes to prices block (including a new core inflation definition), the impact of global commodity prices on the domestic prices included. |
ECMOD model
| Year | Link | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | A description of ECMOD model | Endogenously determined non-accelerating wage rate of unemployment (NAWRU), changes applied to wage equation, foreign trade block and the external environment definition. |
| 2005 | A description of ECMOD model | The first version of the ECMOD model. |
MSMI and NSA models
| Year | Link | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | A description of MSMI and NSA models | Models documentation from February 2004. |