Webinar Probabilistic inflation forecasting with model pooling

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Webinar Probabilistic inflation forecasting with model pooling organized by the International Department in cooperation with the Economic Analysis and Research Department took place on 22-23 February 2022.

During the sessions the NBP’s expert presented theoretical and empirical results regarding the use of the probabilistic approach to inflation forecasting. The approach allows for quantitative analysis of forecast uncertainty, which is important for central banks. Model averaging (or pooling) aims at mitigation of risk arising from relying upon a single (and potentially mis-specified) model. The expert also discussed certain practical details and technical solutions related to model-based short-term inflation forecasting at NBP.

Narodowy Bank Polski would like to thank all guests for active participation and expert for his valuable contribution.