The meeting of the Financial Stability Committee (FSC) of 28 March 2023 was attended by:
- Paweł Szałamacha, Member of the Management Board of Narodowy Bank Polski as the Chair of the Committee,
- Piotr Patkowski, Undersecretary of State, Ministry of Finance,
- Marcin Mikołajczyk, Deputy Chairman of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority,
- Piotr Tomaszewski, President of the Management Board of the Bank Guarantee Fund.
Performing its statutory duties, the Committee passed a resolution on a recommendation addressed to the Minister of Finance on maintaining the current countercyclical buffer rate. The results of analysis indicate that the current buffer rate of 0% is adequate and that there is no reason to change it. The representative of the Minister of Finance agreed with the recommendation and confirmed that there was no need to take legislative action in this area.
Members of the Committee discussed the sources of risk in the Polish financial system and its environment, identified in the survey conducted among institutions represented in the FSC. The general risk assessment had deteriorated compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. The legal risk of FX housing loans remains the most significant vulnerability of the domestic financial system identified by the Committee. The risk of lower capital surpluses and a credit rationing, first identified in December 2022, occupied the second place in the hierarchy of sources of risk. Geopolitical risk fell to third place among sources of risk. Risk associated with residential real estate market and contagion risk resulting from the vulnerabilities of certain institutions remained at a moderate level.
The Committee maintains its assessment on the lack of legal and economic grounds to negate the correct determination of the WIBOR reference rate, expressed in the press release of 9 December 2022. Due to the continued attempts to undermine the credibility and representativeness of this reference rate, the Committee recognised the questioning of the benchmark in credit agreements to constitute systemic risk. At the same time, the Committee is monitoring the progress of the National Working Group, whose objective is to smoothly and safely replace the WIBOR benchmark with WIRON. The Committee believes that this change should take place without a privileged position for any of the parties to the agreements.
The Committee summarised the current trends on the domestic residential real estate market. A rise in nominal prices of apartments is observed alongside a downward trend in their real prices. The number of apartments offered for sale and the volume of apartment sales remains low compared to previous years. The fall in demand for housing loans continues – the number of loan applications declined as well as the value of loans granted.
The Committee got acquainted with the current stage of implementation of the recommendations on supporting the stable functioning of cooperative banks (Resolution No. 46/2021) and the recommendations supporting the stable functioning of credit unions (Resolution No. 48/2021).
Implementing the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) recommendation on the assessment of cross-border effects of and voluntary reciprocity for macroprudential policy measures (ESRB/2015/2), the Committee studied the analysis of the Polish banking sector’s exposures to the Netherlands and Latvia and concluded that there are reasons justifying non-reciprocity of the macroprudential instruments implemented. The next regular meeting of the Committee on macroprudential supervision is scheduled for June 2023.