NBP Conferences | 2008-2001
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Warsaw, December 8-9, 2008, Migration, Labour Market and Economic Growth in Europe after Enlargement
Aim of the Conference
While migration from the Central and Eastern Europe countries to Western Europe increased dramatically after EU enlargements in 2004 and 2007, the knowledge on its impact on labour markets and economic growth in both sending and receiving countries is far from complete. National statistical offices have problems with estimating both the size and the character (permanent vs. temporary) of migration. Scarce information on economic activity of migrants and their skill composition makes it difficult to assess the impact of migration on the labour market balances and economic growth, especially in the sending countries. Estimation of potential macroeconomic effects of migration, through current account and exchange rate channels is even more problematic. On top of that, the role of migration in Europe in pursuing the objective of transforming European economy into a more innovative and productive system with the ongoing ageing of the European population, remains the major research and policy problem in the long run.
The general aim of the conference is to gather the latest research on migration as an economic phenomenon and its impact on labour markets and economic growth in Europe, with particular focus on the new EU member states (NMSs) and the after- enlargement migration flows. The special areas of interest of the conference are:
determinants of migration,
labour migration after EU enlargement and its impact on the labour markets of the sending and the receiving countries,
macroeconomic effects of migration (remittances, balance of payments, economic growth, potential growth, changes in production specialization etc.),
migration and mobility of other factors of production (offshoring etc.).
The conference is open to labour market researchers, central bank macroeconomists, academia, economists and practitioners from government and international institutions.
Special award (2000 euro) will be granted to the best paper subject to age criterion (35 or less – for the author and co-authors).
Organizing Committee
Elżbieta Czarny (SGH, Bank i Kredyt),
Krzysztof Gajewski (NBP, Bank i Kredyt),
Ryszard Kokoszczyński (Uniwersytet Warszawski, NBP, Bank i Kredyt),
Zbigniew Polański – przewodniczšcy (SGH, Bank i Kredyt),
Katarzyna Saczuk (SGH, NBP),
Paweł Strzelecki (SGH, NBP),
Robert Wyszyński (NBP),
Zbigniew Żółkiewski (NBP, Bank i Kredyt),
Michał Rutkowski (Bank Światowy, Bank i Kredyt)
15 października 2008, Warszawa, Wspólna waluta europejska i jej przyszłość: wnioski dla nowych krajów członkowskich Unii Europejskiej
The conference marks one of the final stages of the ongoing work on the Report on Poland’s Membership in the Euro Area, prepared by the National Bank of Poland in cooperation with leading research institutions, public authorities and social partners.
The final Report will cover economic, legal and operational questions relevant in the process of monetary integration with the euro area. The Report will include submissions from world’s leading economists who will present during the conference their views on the efforts of Poland and other New Member States to join the euro area.
The task of preparing the Report was entrusted to the Bureau for Integration with the Euro Area which was set-up within the National Bank of Poland in May 2007. The Report is due to be ready at the end of 2008.
The Bureau coordinates the work of approximately 100 experts, representing around 40 domestic and foreign research institutes and universities.
The conclusions of the Report will be based on an extensive research program which involves about 55 research projects conducted by the NBP, leading research institutes, as well as internationally recognized experts. All projects are subject to an anonymous peer-review process.
The Bureau takes every effort to meet social consultation needs and provide the public with information regarding the results of consecutive research projects through open seminars. The Bureau will organize around 100 seminars in which social partners, as well as experts from academia and the private sector, are encouraged to participate and provide feedback that is subsequently taken into account by the Bureau.
As part of the consultation process, the Bureau has established a platform for cooperation with major social partners, i.e. the members of the Tripartite Commission as well as the Polish Bank Association. Quarterly meetings are held with heads of these organizations and the Governor of the NBP. Social partners will also draft one of the components of the Report, summarizing their positions and views on integration with the euro area.
Constant working contacts with the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economy, as well as numerous international organizations have been established.
It is the first time such a document is being prepared with such a high degree of open communication and consultations, involving a wide spectrum of individual researchers and institutions.
Wednesday, 15 October 2008
8.30 – 9.00
Registration of participants
9.00 – 9.15
Welcome address: Sławomir Skrzypek
President of the National Bank of Poland
9.15 – 9.30
Introductory remarks: prof. Zbigniew Hockuba
Common European Currency: Challenge to Poland
prof. Zbigniew Hockuba (PDF)
9.30 – 10.30
Session 1: Adopting the Euro: How and When?
Chair and introduction: prof. Jerzy Osiatyński
Speakers: prof. Willem Buiter (London School of Economics), Susan Schadler
Euro Adoption in Central Europe:A Case for Action and Priorities for Preparation
Susan Schadler
10.30 – 11.00
Coffee break
11.00 – 12.00
Session 2: OCA Criteria – How Relevant Are They Today?
Chair and introduction: prof. Karol Lutkowski
Speakers: prof. Ronald McKinnon (Stanford University), prof. Andrew Rose (UC Berkeley)
Optimum Currency Areas: Mundell 1 (1961) versus Mundell II (1973)
prof. Ronald McKinnon (Stanford University)
EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization: What Do We Know and What Does it Mean for Poland?
prof. Andrew Rose (UC Berkeley)
12.00 – 13.30
Session 3: Managing the Risks on the Road to the Euro
Chair and introduction: prof. Stanisław Gomułka
Speakers: prof. Barry Eichengreen (UC Berkeley), dr. Peter Backé (OeNB), dr. Christoph Rosenberg (IMF)
Is Poland at Risk of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption?
prof. Barry Eichengreen (UC Berkeley)
Credit Growth and Financial Deepening: Implications for Euro Adoption?
dr. Peter Backé (OeNB)
“Common Currency and its Future: Lessons for the New Member States”
Christoph Rosenberg (IMF)
13.30 – 14.30
Lunch
14.30 – 15.30
Session 4: Euro @10
Chair and introduction: prof. Witold Orłowski
Speakers: Mr. Massimo Suardi (European Commission), prof. Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard University)
EMU@10 and beyond: on the way to an enlarged euro area
Mr. Massimo Suardi (European Commission)
The Euro Might Overtake the Dollar as Leading International Currency by 2020
prof. Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard University)
15.30 – 15.45
Coffee break
15.45 – 17.00
Session 5: The challenges of EMU Enlargement from the perspective of the NMSs
Chair and introduction: prof. Aleksander Welfe
Speakers: Mr. Märten Ross (Eesti Pank), prof. László Halpern (Hungarian Academy of Sciences), prof. Vladimir Lavrač (Institute for Economic Research)
17.00 – 17.15
Coffee break
17.15 – 18.15
Session 6: Quo Vadis Euro Area?
Chair and introduction: dr. Krzysztof Rybiński
Speakers: prof. Paul de Grauwe (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven), prof. Jakob de Haan (University of Groningen)
Some Thoughts on Monetary and Political Union
prof. Paul de Grauwe (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)
The impact of EMU on business cycle synchronization and labour market reform
prof. Jakob de Haan (University of Groningen)
18.15 – 18.45
Concluding remarks: dr. Cezary Wójcik
Common Currency and its Future: Lessons for the New Member States
dr. Cezary Wójcik
18.45
Final remarks: Prof. Witold Koziński
20.00
Dinner
November 23, 2007, Warsaw, Monetary Policy Challenges Resulting from Rapid Credit Growth in Converging Economies
Recent years have seen a rapid credit growth in many of the new EU Member States and other catching-up economies. While financial deepening is an inherent part of the convergence process and can be beneficial for the economy, the scale and the speed of the observed lending growth raises important questions for the monetary and financial authorities. Is this strong increase in loans a credit bubble or an equilibrium phenomenon? What risks does it pose to price and financial stability? What measures can be taken to avoid or reduce potential negative consequences of a lending boom? How does the credit growth affect the conditions in which monetary policy operates and what policy adjustment does it require? What is the impact of the euro adoption on the lending growth and the optimal policy response?
The objective of the conference is to present the latest research on the determinants of the credit growth in converging economies as well as its effects and policy challenges. The conference is also intended to provide a discussion forum for distinguished academics, central bankers and representatives from commercial banks on a topic of great importance for monetary policy.
Thursday, 22 November 2007
13.00 – 13.10
Opening:
SŁAWOMIR STANISŁAW SKRZYPEK,
President, National Bank of Poland
13.10 – 14.30
Session 1:
Is Lending Growth in CEE Too Fast? A Credit Bubble or an Equilibrium Phenomenon
Chair:
Andrzej Sławiński, National Bank of Poland
G. Kiss, M. Nagy and B. Vonnák:
Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Trend, Cycle or Boom?
presented by GERGELY KISS, Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Discussant: FRÉDÉRIC BOISSAY, European Central Bank
B. Egert, P. Backé and T. Zumer:
Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over) Shooting Stars? – part 1, part 2
presented by TINA ZUMER, Bank of Slovenia
Discussant: ISTVÁN P. SZÉKELY, European Commission
14.30 – 15.00 Coffee Break
15.00 – 16.20
Session 2:
Credit Expansions, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
Chair:
Wojciech Charemza, National Bank of Poland
A. Barajas, G. Dell’Ariccia and A. Levchenko:
Credit Booms: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
presented by GIOVANNI DELL’ARICCIA, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: BAS VAN AARLE, Centre for European Economic Research
M. Brzoza-Brzezina, T. Chmielewski and J. Niedźwiedzińska:
Substitution between Domestic and Foreign Currency Loans in Central Europe
presented by MICHAŁ BRZOZA-BRZEZINA, National Bank of Poland
Discussant: TOMASZ KOŹLUK, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
16.20 – 16.50 Coffee Break
16.50 – 18.10
Session 3:
Credit Expansion in Selected CEE New EU Member States
Chair:
Dariusz Filar, National Bank of Poland
F. Neagu, A. Mărgărit, M. Copaciu, I. Racaru, R. Mircea and A. Andrassy:
Non-Government Credit in Romania: Perspectives and Implications
presented by FLORIAN NEAGU, National Bank of Romania
Discussant: RAFAŁ KIERZENKOWSKI, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
T. Ramanauskas:
Interest Rates, Credit and the Macroeconomy – a Small Structural Model for the Lithuanian Case
presented by TOMAS RAMANAUSKAS, Bank of Lithuania
Discussant: ADAM KOT, National Bank of Poland
Friday, 23 November 2007
9.00 – 10.20
Session 4:
Rapid Credit Growth in the Housing Market – Implications for Monetary Policy
Chair:
Stanisław Gomułka, London School of Economics
B. Égert and D. Mihaljek:
Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe
presented by DUBRAVKO MIHALJEK, Bank for International Settlements
Discussant: JESÚS CRESPO CUARESMA, University of Innsbruck
S. Zajączkowski and D. Żochowski:
Housing Loans Growth, Foreign Currency Risk and Supervisory Response: the Polish Case
presented by DAWID ŻOCHOWSKI, National Bank of Poland
Discussant: AGNIESZKA STĄŻKA, National Bank of Poland
10.20 – 10.50 Coffee Break
10.50 – 12.20
Session 5:
Credit Expansion in CEE from the Perspective of Commercial Banks
Chair:
Karol Lutkowski, National Bank of Poland
DEBORA REVOLTELLA, Head of New Europe Research, Unicredit Group
STEFAN ŚWIĄTKOWSKI, Deputy President, PKO BP S.A.
JAN VANHEVEL, CEO Central Europe, KBC Group N.V.
12.20 – 13.20 Lunch
13.20 – 14.20
Session 6:
The Impact of Credit Expansion in CEE and the Challenges Ahead – The Assessment of International Financial Institutions
Chair:
Zbigniew Hockuba, National Bank of Poland
P. Schellekens and R. Bems:
Finance and Convergence in Emerging Europe: What’s Ahead for Emerging Europe?
presented by PHILIP SCHELLEKENS, International Monetary Fund
World Bank EU8+2 Regular Economic Report, Special Topic: Credit Expansion in Emerging Europe: A Cause for Concern?
presented by LESZEK KĄSEK, World Bank
14.20 – 14.50 Coffee Break
14.50 – 16.20
Session 5:
Panel discussion: Monetary Policy Challenges Resulting from the Rapid Credit Growth In CEE
Chair:
Alojzy Nowak, University of Warsaw
JÚLIA KIRÁLY, Deputy Governor, Magyar Nemzeti Bank
KRZYSZTOF RYBIŃSKI, Deputy President, National Bank of Poland
ANDRES SUTT, Deputy Governor, Bank of Estonia
ZDENĚK TŮMA, Governor, Czech National Bank
16.20 – 16.30 Closing address:
KRZYSZTOF RYBIŃSKI, Deputy President, National Bank of Poland
Speakers
SŁAWOMIR STANISŁAW SKRZYPEK, President, National Bank of Poland
ZDENĚK TŮMA, Governor, Czech National Bank
JÚLIA KIRÁLY, Deputy Governor, Magyar Nemzeti Bank
ANDRES SUTT, Deputy Governor, Bank of Estonia
GERGELY KISS, Magyar Nemzeti Bank
FRÉDÉRIC BOISSAY, European Central Bank
TINA ZUMER, Bank of Slovenia
ISTVÁN P. SZÉKELY, European Commission
GIOVANNI DELL’ARICCIA, International Monetary Fund
BAS VAN AARLE, Centre for European Economic Research
TOMASZ KOŹLUK, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
FLORIAN NEAGU, National Bank of Romania
RAFAŁ KIERZENKOWSKI, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
TOMAS RAMANAUSKAS, Bank of Lithuania
DUBRAVKO MIHALJEK, Bank for International Settlements
JESÚS CRESPO CUARESMA, University of Innsbruck
DEBORA REVOLTELLA, Head of New Europe Research, Unicredit Group
STEFAN ŚWIĄTKOWSKI, Deputy President, PKO BP S.A.
JAN VANHEVEL, CEO Central Europe, KBC Group N.V.
PHILIP SCHELLEKENS, International Monetary Fund
LESZEK KĄSEK, World Bank
KRZYSZTOF RYBIŃSKI, Deputy President, National Bank of Poland
MICHAŁ BRZOZA-BRZEZINA, National Bank of Poland
ADAM KOT, National Bank of Poland
AGNIESZKA STĄŻKA, National Bank of Poland
DAWID ŻOCHOWSKI, National Bank of Poland
Warsaw, September 28-29, 2006, The Role of Central Banks in Economic and Personal Finance Education
The National Bank of Poland, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the European Central Bank are organising an international conference entitled “The Role of Central Banks in Economic and Personal Finance Education”. The objective of the conference is to provide a forum for the exchange of experience and ideas by recognised central bankers, academicians and international educators.
In the contemporary world the economic and financial education of citizens is not only the problem of state authorities, it is also a common challenge for many public institutions and non-profit organisations.
The lack of understanding of economic issues in the society is a serious challenge for every central bank. That is why an increasing number of central banks, have started to implement economic or financial education initiatives under their statutory objectives and tasks. It is usually difficult to explain the monetary policy and its impact on the economic development of a country if its citizens do not understand fundamentals of the market economy and are not aware of how some economic processes influence their day-to-day life. Central banks are especially interested in proper communication with the wider environment. Economic or financial activities may soon become a significant part of the information policy addressed to different target groups or broader public.
The conference will take place on September 28-29, 2006 in Warsaw, Poland. As an increasing number of central banks are considering their involvement in economic or financial education, this international conference will serve as one of the most important initiatives in this field in the world.
It should be emphasised that the conference programme includes a lot of presentations. Between the sessions, central bankers from all over the world will demonstrate exemplary education programmes and products that can be replicated in other countries.
Participation in the conference is free of charge.
Programme
Opening Session:
Why Central Banks Support Economic and Financial Education? The European and American Perspective.
Testimonies by senior, international central bankers on the importance of economic and personal finance education, from European and American perspectives.
Why involve central banks?
What economic and personal finance education goals should central banks pursue?
What outcomes are reasonable to expect from central bank education efforts?
Speakers: Mr. Leszek Balcerowicz, President, National Bank of Poland, Ms. Cathy Minehan, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
9.40 – 10.40
Panel Discussion No. 1
The Level of Economic Awareness, Knowledge and Understanding.
Presentations by experts from different countries on the state of economic knowledge and understanding in their own countries.
Levels of the Economic Awareness
In which topics is the public generally either uneducated or lacking in fundamental understanding?
Which are the most common economic myths that could be corrected easily through basic education programmes?
How do cultural and psychological factors influence the ways economic and financial topics are taught and learned?
What can do be done to overcome cultural and psychological barriers to learning about economics and finance?
In what ways does the lack of widespread economic education result in financial distress for individuals and households, and macroeconomic issues for policy makers?
Speakers: Robert Duvall, National Council on Economic Education; William Walstad, University Nebraska-Lincoln; Tadeusz Tyszka, Leon Kozmiński Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management, Warsaw.
10.40 – 11.00
Demonstration No. 1
Economic Education Portal of the National Bank of Poland.
Presenters: Filip Wojciechowski and Andrzej Jaszczuk, NBP
11.00 – 11.30 Coffee Break
11.30 – 11.50
Demonstration No. 2
Economic Education Resource Bank – the Online Platform for Central Banks to Exchange Ideas and Share Experience.
Presenter: Mr. Michał Motyka, EERB Manager
11.50 – 13.10
Panel Discussion No. 2
Promoting Economic Education at the National Level.
Representatives of different countries discuss how to develop economic education programmes and how they could be promoted to foster improved understanding of policy issues by the public. Special emphasis will be put on how to improve the general public’s understanding of how monetary policy affects their economic and financial well-being.
Special issues and challenges that complicate economic education
How can the central bank play the role of a leader in the most effective way?
What steps must be taken to set up appropriate collaboration with other governmental agencies?
What steps must be taken to carry out a national strategy?
How can the private sector and the public sector work together most effectively?
What are the major keys to the success of a national strategy? What are the principal impediments?
What topics should the central bank focus on in the field of economic education?
How to link the education about central bank policies with the broad economic education of the society?
Speakers: Dariusz Filar, Monetary Policy Council, National Bank of Poland; Robert Duvall, National Council on Economic Education; Joseph Ganley, Bank of England; Jae-Jin Park, Economic Education Center, Bank of Korea.
13.10 – 14.40 Lunch
14.40 – 15.10
Demonstration No. 3
Economic and Financial Education at Schools – Results of Public-Private Partnership.
Presenters: Mr. Zbigniew Modrzewski, Junior Achievement Foundation Poland, Mr. Dariusz Danilewicz, NBP
15.10 – 15.30
Demonstration No. 4
Taking Ownership of the Future – The US National Strategy for Financial Literacy.
Presenter: Dan Iannicola, US Department of Treasury
15.30 – 16.45
Panel Discussion No. 3
The Need for Financial Education.
Representatives from different institutions discuss the process of developing personal finance education strategies and programmes at the national level.
The reason why financial education is becoming a major issue in many countries,
Special issues and challenges in promoting financial education,
How can the central bank play the role of a leader in the most effective way?
What steps must be taken to to set up appropriate collaboration with other governmental agencies?
International collaborations: What works and what does not?
What steps must be taken to carry out a national strategy?
How can the private sector and the public sector work together most effectively?
What are the major keys to the success of a national strategy? What are the principal impediments?
Speakers: Mr. Greg Valentine, National Business Educators Association (USA); Ms. Barbara Smith, Financial Affairs Division, OECD; Mr. John J. Ferrandino, National Academy Foundation (USA); Włodzimierz Grudziński, Junior Achievement Foundation Poland
16.45 – 17.15 Coffee Break
17.15 – 17.40
Demonstration No. 5
Learning About the Central Bank – Monetary Policy Simulation Game. Presenters: Mr. Tomasz Chmielewski, Mr. Adam Kot, NBP
17.40 – 18.00
Demonstration No. 6
Economic and financial education activities of the Reserve Bank of India.
Presenter: Ms. Alpana Killawala, Reserve Bank of India
18.00 – 18.20
Demonstration No. 7
Financial Education of Consumers.
Presenter: Mr. Bruno Levesque, Financial Consumer Agency of Canada
20.00 OFFICIAL RECEPTION
The PORCZYŃSKI GALLERY
September 29, 2006
The WESTIN HOTEL, WARSAW
9.00 – 10.30
Panel Discussion No. 4
Implementing Economic and Financial Literacy Programmes at the National or Local levels.
A discussion on how a central bank can conduct a public information campaign nationally to populations of diverse backgrounds, education, ages, incomes and levels of wealth
What are realistic goals?
Building public acceptance and awareness for central bank efforts
What are the basic elements of the support infrastructure needed to develop, expand and sustain central bank education programmes
How can funding be assured?
Staffing: economists and financial experts or educators?
Intra-central bank collaboration; external collaborations
Developing local capacity to implement central bank programmes
Sustaining local involvement while innovating and expanding
Evaluation of the impact of central bank efforts (developing meaningful metrics)
Speakers: Mr. Steven Malin, Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Mr. Federico Rubli Kaiser, Banco de Mexico; Ms. Heike Winter, Bundesbank; Mr. Marcin Polak, National Bank of Poland
10.30 – 10.50
Demonstration No. 8
Open Days of Central Bank – An Opportunity to Educate General Public.
Presenter: Ms. Małgorzata Kloc-Konkołowicz, NBP
10.50 – 11.10
Demonstration No. 9
Price Stability – why is it important for you? The European Central Bank`s Education Tool.
Presenter: Ms. Elisabeth Ardaillon-Poirier, ECB
11.10 – 11.40 Coffee Break
11.40 – 13.00
Panel Discussion No. 5
National Economic and Financial Education Programmes That Work – Experiences from Different Countries.
Discussion of specific, exemplary programmes from three countries that promote economic or financial education
Discussion of objectives and goals, and what makes the programme, product or competition successful
Required delivery and support infrastructure
Distribution methods
Use of print and electronic media for production and distribution
Evaluation metrics for the specific programme, product or competition
Speakers: Ms. Edyta Rojcewicz, NBP (“Gold for the Bold” TV Show – National Test of Economic Knowledge); Mr. Steven Malin, FRB New York (The Fed Challenge Competition); Mr. Janis Motivans, Bank of Latvia (“Money World” Visitors Centre)
13.00 – 13.20
Demonstration No. 10
Bundesbank Money Museum – A Success Story of How to Educate Public Opinion About the Central Bank and Money Issues.
Presenter: Ms. Heike Winter, Bundesbank
13.20 – 13.40
Demonstration No. 11
MIDE: Museo Interactivo de Economia – New Economic Education Initiative of the Bank of Mexico.
Presenters: Mr. Federico Rubli Kaiser, Banco de Mexico & Ms. Silvia Singer Sochet, Espacio Cultural y Educativo Betlemitas
13.40 – 14.10
Concluding Remarks:
Economic Education – an Important Factor in the Implementation of the Monetary Policy.
The main challenges for the economic education of societies in the 21st Century.
European and International environment: globalisation, economic development and Lisbon Strategy vs. the need for economic education
Implementation of monetary policy vs. the level of knowledge of the general public
Development of financial markets vs. knowledge on personal finances
Challenges ahead – the role and tasks of central banks in economic and financial education.
Mr. Jürgen Stark, Member of the Executive Board and Governing Council of the European Central Bank
14.10 – 15.40 Lunch
15.40 – 17.30 Informal Meetings and Talks on the Economic and Financial Education.
Ardaillon-Poirier Elisabeth – European Central Bank
Balcerowicz Leszek – President, National Bank of Poland
Chmielewski Tomasz – National Bank of Poland
Danilewicz Dariusz – National Bank of Poland
Duvall Robert – National Council on Economic Education
Ferrandino John J. – National Academy Foundation, USA
Filar Dariusz – Monetary Policy Council, National Bank of Poland;
Ganley Joseph – Bank of England
Grudziński Włodzimierz – Junior Achievement Foundation Poland
Iannicola Dan – US Department of Treasury
Jaszczuk Andrzej – National Bank of Poland
Killawala Alpana – Reserve Bank of India
Kloc-Konkołowicz Małgorzata – National Bank of Poland
Kot Adam – National Bank of Poland
Levesque Bruno – Financial Consumer Agency of Canada
Malin Steven – FRB New York (The Fed Challenge Competition)
Minehan Cathy – President, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, USA
Modrzewski Zbigniew – Junior Achievement Foundation in Poland
Motivans Janis – Bank of Latvia (Money World Visitors Centre)
Motyka Michał – Economic Education Resource Bank, Manager
Park Jae-Jin – Economic Education Center, Bank of Korea
Polak Marcin – National Bank of Poland
Rojcewicz Edyta – National Bank of Poland (Gold for the Bold TV Show – National Test of Economic Knowledge)
Rubli Kaiser Federico – Banco de Mexico
Singer Sochet Silvia – Espacio Cultural y Educativo Betlemitas
Smith Barbara – Financial Affairs Division, OECD
Stark Jürgen – Member of the Executive Board and Governing Council of the European Central Bank
Tyszka Tadeusz – Leon Kozmiński Academy of Entrepreneurship and Management, Warsaw
Valentine Greg – National Business Educators Association, USA
Walstad William – University Nebraska-Lincoln
Winter Heike – Bundesbank
Wojciechowski Filip – National Bank of Poland
September 1-2, 2006, Warsaw, The CEPR/ESI 10th Annual Conference on Globalisation and Monetary Policy
The 10th CEPR/European Summer Institute Annual Conference will take place on 1-2 September 2006 in Warsaw and will be hosted by the National Bank of Poland. The CEPR/ESI Annual Conferences were sponsored by the Banco de Portugal, Bank of Finland, the Deutsche Bundesbank, the National Bank of Belgium, the National Bank of Hungary, the Nederlandsche Bank, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and the European Central Bank. Former conferences were held on ‘The Changing European Financial Landscape’ in Brussels (1998), ‘Fiscal Policy Imbalances, the Monetary Transmission Mechanism and Prudential Supervision’ in Lisbon (1999), ‘Vivent les Différences?: Heterogeneous Europe’ in Amsterdam (2000), ‘Old Age, New Economy and Central Banking’ in Helsinki (2001), ‘Regulatory Changes for European Financial Markets’ in Vienna (2002), ‘The Euro Area as an Economic Entity’ in Eltville (2003), ‘EMU Enlargement to the East and the West’ in Budapest (2004) and on ‘Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Europe’ in Frankfurt-am-Main (2005).
The topic of the 10th CEPR/ESI Annual Conference will be ‘Globalization and Monetary Policy’ and will cover the following sub-areas: (1) impact of globalization on monetary policy (with special emphasis on the following channels: product market, labour market, non-financial and financial services), (2) implications of global imbalances for monetary policy, (3) modelling monetary policy under globalization. The intention is to have three policy lectures by senior central bankers. Furthermore, there will be a panel session of commercial bank analysts and representatives of international institutions. Finally, the conference will be closed with three survey papers by reputed academics on modelling monetary policy under globalization.
One part of the conference will be reserved for central bank researchers of member countries of the European Union and of the EU candidate countries. Therefore, the organizers of the 2006 CEPR/ESI Annual Conference ask the Research Departments of the EU and candidate countries to submit their best paper related to one of the specified sub-areas above. We would ask that you do this by completing the attached reply form and sending it with a first version of the paper to Rachel Bedford at CEPR (fax: 44 20 7878 2999, email: rbedford@cepr.org) by 1 June 2006. The organizers will then select the three best papers for presentation at the conference in a special session of central bank research papers. Moreover, the organizers will award the best of these three papers with the CEPR/ESI Prize 2006 for the Best Central Bank Research Paper.
The organizers
Sylvester Eijffinger (CentER, Tilburg University, RSM Erasmus University and CEPR)
Kees Koedijk (RSM Erasmus University, Maastricht University and CEPR)
Adam B. Czyżewski (National Bank of Poland)
February 9-10, 2006, Warsaw, The Role of Inflation Expectations in Modelling and Monetary Policy Making
The international scientific workshop “The role of inflation expectations in modelling and monetary policy making”, covering the application of information on inflation expectations in macroeconomic modelling and in monetary policy making, will be hosted by the National Bank of Poland on 9-10 February 2006. The workshop aims to establish a platform for the discussion and sharing experience between the representatives of central banks and the members of academic community, regarding measurement of economic agents’ expectations, the methods of formulating those expectations, and the role they play in economic processes. The workshop is not available to the general public. However, persons particularly interested in the above issues may, in justified cases (e.g. research conducted in the area) apply to the following address: Sekretariat.BBM@mail.nbp.pl
Conference description
The development of economics and empirical studies indicate to a significant role of expectations – including inflation expectations – in macroeconomic relations. Three interrelated premises for central banks’ interest in the issue of inflation expectations may be identified. Firstly, the expectations constitute one of the factors that may determine market behaviour insofar as consumption, savings, wage trade-off, etc., and thus indirectly influence the price processes in the economy. Depending on the strength of the impact of central bank’s interest rates changes on inflation expectations, these may become a significant gear in the mechanism of transmission of the monetary policy impulses. Secondly, to the extent to which they are an independent determiner of future price developments, they may be a valuable source of information to be used in anticipation analyses, e.g. in macroeconomic forecasts that provide foundations for the decisions of monetary authorities. Thirdly, inflation expectations of various groups of economic agents (consumers, enterprises, the financial sector) are a measurement of central bank’s credibility, and they determine the degree of conviction as to the possible achievement of its statutory objective, i.e. price stability. This is especially important in the direct inflation target regime.
With the introduction of the direct inflation target strategy in Poland in 1998, the National Bank of Poland has developed research on inflation expectations. As regards inflation expectations of private individuals, methods of quantification of inflation expectations on the basis of survey data were developed. The resultant indicators were then used in assessment of the nature of inflation expectations in this group of agents, and in comparison of inflation expectations of private individuals in Poland and in the euro area. The quantified measures of inflation expectations of private individuals were also included in the macroeconometric models applied at the NBP.
The importance of the issue in modern macroeconomics has made the National Bank of Poland organize an international workshop on inflation expectations. The workshop aims to establish a platform for the discussion and sharing experience for the representatives of central banks and the members of academic community, regarding measurement of economic agents’ expectations, the methods of formulating those expectations and the role they play in economic processes. The topics of particular presentations and the discussion panel to be held at the end of the workshop should provide a response to the question about the application of information on inflation expectations in macroeconomic modelling and in monetary policy making by modern central banks.
Program of the Conference
Thursday, February 9th, 2006
08:30 – 08:45 Opening address
Jerzy Pruski – First Deputy President of the National Bank of Poland
08:45 – 09:45 Opening lecture: The role of expectations in macroeconomics
– Peter Sinclair, University of Birmingham and the Bank of England
09:45 – 10:15
Coffee break
10.15-11.00 Should private expectations concern central bankers?
Martin Fukač, Czech National Bank
Discussant: Zoltan Jakab, National Bank of Hungary
11:00 – 11:45 How robust are quantified survey data? Evidence from the United States
Roy Batchelor, Cass Business School, London
Discussant: Richard Curtin, University of Michigan
11:45 – 12:30
Inflation expectations: theoretical models and empirical tests
Richard Curtin, University of Michigan
Discussant: Michael F. Bryan, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
12:30 – 14:00
Lunch break
14:00 – 14:45
Survey expectations, rationality and the dynamics of euro area inflation
Magnus Forsells and Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
Discussant: Fabien Curto Millet, Balliol College, Oxford
14:45 – 15:30
Household versus expert forecasts of inflation: New evidence from European survey data
Christina Gerberding, Deutsche Bundesbank
Discussant: Emilia Tomczyk, Warsaw School of Economics
15:30 – 16:15
The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area
Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, Bank of Finland
Discussant: Roy Batchelor, Cass Business School, London
16:15 – 16:45
Coffee break
16:45 – 17:30
Testing near-rationality using detailed survey data
Michael F. Bryan, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Stefan Palmqvist, Sveriges Riksbank
Discussant: Maciej K. Dudek, National Bank of Poland
17:30 – 18:15
400 000 observations on inflation perceptions and expectations in the EU. What will they tell us?
Staffan Lindén, European Commission
Discussant: Stefan Palmqvist, Sveriges Riksbank
20:00
Reception
Remarks by Leszek Balcerowicz – President of the National Bank of Poland
Friday, February 10th, 2006
08:30 – 09:15 Consumers’ inflation expectations and monetary policy in Europe
Jan Marc Berk, De Nederlandsche Bank
Discussant: Tomasz Łyziak, National Bank of Poland
09:15 – 10:00 Finding the optimal method of quantifying inflation expectations on the basis of qualitative survey data
Fabien Curto Millet, Balliol College, Oxford
Discussant: Jerzy Mycielski, University of Warsaw
10:00 – 10:45 Consumer inflation expectations. Usefulness of survey-based measures – a cross-country study
Ryszard Kokoszczyński, Tomasz Łyziak, Ewa Stanisławska, National Bank of Poland
Discussant: Martin Fukač, Czech National Bank
10:45 – 11:15
Coffee break
11:15 – 12:30 Panel discussion on the use of different measures of inflation expectations in monetary policy making
Chair: Lars Jonung, European Commission
Panelists:
Tibor Hledik, Czech National Bank
Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
Ryszard Kokoszczyński, National Bank of Poland
12:30 – 13:00
Closing remarks: Andrzej Wojtyna, Monetary Policy Council, National Bank of Poland
13:00 – 14:30
Lunch
June 30 – July 1, 2005, Fiscal Policy and the Road to the Euro
Objective of the conference
Radical market oriented reforms implemented after the collapse of the communism led, following an initial sharp drop in output, to rapid growth in the former planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe. Thus, the success of the reforms initiated a process of diminishing disparities in GDP per capita between these countries and Western Europe, i.e., real convergence has commenced.
The formulation and implementation of fiscal policy frameworks conducive to sustainable growth constituted one of the key elements of the reforms undertaken in Central and Eastern European countries. Different approaches to fiscal policy reform were adopted by respective governments, but from a perspective of the last 15 years an assessment can be made that those countries that managed to reduce their fiscal imbalances have achieved better results in terms of GDP growth in comparison to those which followed loose fiscal policies. EU membership and the perspective of joining the eurozone impose an obligation on all new member states to conduct a disciplined fiscal policy. This raises the question of how fiscal consolidation can promote nominal and real convergence.
This is an issue that has been widely discussed in economic literature and remains one of the most disputed topics among economists. What are the long- and short-term consequences of fiscal consolidation? How to minimize its costs and maximize its benefits? Is there any trade-off between short- and long-term outcomes? What institutional set up can best serve fiscal discipline? The conference is called to shed light on these and other issues relating to the role of fiscal policy in promoting real and nominal convergence.
As Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, once wrote – “central bankers are often accused of being obsessed with inflation, but if they are obsessed with anything it is fiscal policy”. Central banks have a strong incentive to monitor fiscal policies, as they significantly influence the room for maneuver for monetary policy as far as attaining and maintaining price stability is concerned, particularly so in small open economies like the new EU Member States. Hence, we are interested in exploring the mechanisms and promoting the knowledge of how fiscal policy can best contribute to maintaining price stability and achieving sustainable growth at a time when the new EU Members prepare for the adoption of the euro.
Expected benefits from the conference
The expected benefits of the conference are threefold:
Exchanging knowledge about the fiscal aspects of real and nominal convergence;
Attracting the attention of policy-makers and media to the impact of fiscal imbalances on economic performance;
Building up new relationships and strengthening cooperation with prominent economists representing many thought-leading institutions.
9.00 – 9.15 Opening of the conference
Leszek Balcerowicz – President of the National Bank of Poland
Zsigmond Járai – Governor of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Session 1:
Public finances and economic growth
9.15 – 9.45 Fiscal discipline and the role of the Stability and Growth Pact
Joaquin Almunia – Commissioner, European Commission
9.45 – 10.00
Discussion
10.00 – 10.40 Public finances and long-term economic growth
Philip Lane – Dublin University
Vito Tanzi – Inter-American Development Bank
10.40 – 10.55
Discussion
10.55 – 11.25 Coffee break
11.25 – 12.05 Can Stability and Growth Pact oriented fiscal consolidation be expansionary
Roberto Perotti – Universita Bocconi
Giuseppe Bertola – Universita di Torino
12.05 – 12.20
Discussion
12.20 – 13.00 Political economy of strong fiscal adjustments
Francesco Giavazzi – Universita Bocconi
Jean-Philippe Cotis – Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
13.00 – 13.15
Discussion
13.15 – 15.00
Lunch
15.00 – 15.40 Fiscal reforms in the New Member States of the European Union. Past performance and future challenges
György Kopits – Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Richard Hemming – International Monetary Fund
Istvan P. Szekely – International Monetary Fund
15.40 – 15.55
Discussion
15.55 – 16.25 Coffee break
16.25 – 16.45 Non-Keynesian effects of fiscal contractions in selected New Member States of the European Union
Andrzej Rzońca – National Bank of Poland
16.45 – 17.00
Discussion
17.00 – 17.30 Summary of the first day
Polish fiscal policy on the road to the euro
Mirosław Gronicki – Minister of Finance of the Republic of Poland
20:00 Official reception
DAY TWO – 1 July
Session 2:
Institutional constraints on fiscal policy
9.00 – 9.30 The Stability and Growth Pact: are fiscal rules needed, do they work?
Jacques de Larosiere – BNP Paribas
9.30 – 9.45
Discussion
9.45 – 10.25 A sustainable level of public debt
V. Hugo Juan-Ramon – International Monetary Fund
Andrea Montanino – Italian Ministry of Labor
10.25 – 10.40
Discussion
10.40 – 11.10 Coffee break
11.10 – 11.30 Fiscal policy and inflation
Willem Buiter – European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
11.30 – 11.50 Fiscal divergence and business cycle synchronization: irresponsibility is idiosyncratic
György Szapáry – Deputy Governor of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Zsolt Darvas – Corvinus University in Budapest
11.50 – 12.05
Discussion
12.05 – 14.00
Lunch
14.00 – 14.20 Mind the gap – International comparison of cyclical adjustment of the budget
Gábor P. Kiss – Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Gábor Vadas – Magyar Nemzeti Bank
14.20 – 14.35
Discussion
14.35 – 15.00 Closing of the conference
Krzysztof Rybiński – Deputy President of the National Bank of Poland
György Szapáry – Deputy Governor of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank
June 2-3, 2005, Warsaw, Central Bank Transparency and Communication: Implications for Monetary Policy
As recently as in the second half of the 1980’s a popular book on the Federal Reserve System by William Greider was titled “Secrets of the Temple” and indeed it was common practice that monetary policy was surrounded by secrecy. Nowadays, a trend towards greater monetary policy transparency can be observed all over the world and central banks are paying increasing attention to their communication with the general public. Transparency and communication of monetary policy have become topical issues discussed by both policy makers and distinguished academics and they have been the subjects of theoretical and empirical research.
The aim of the conference is to present the current state of knowledge in this field. The conference should also serve as a forum of discussion for academics and central bankers alike. This discussion would help policy makers and guide them in adopting optimal transparency and communication strategies.
Conference program and papers
Organizing committee:
Sylvester Eijffinger
Jakob de Haan
Krzysztof Rybiński
The Editors of the European Journal of Political Economy agreed to publish a special issue of EJPE on “Central Bank Communication and Transparency” in which conference papers selected through a normal refereeing process will be published.
Central Bank Transparency and Communication: Implications for Monetary Policy
Program of the Conference
Day one – 2 June
8:30 – 8:45 Opening of the conference
Leszek Balcerowicz – President of the NBP
First Session: Theoretical Aspects
Chair: Sylvester C.W. Eijffinger, Tilburg University and CEPR
8:45 – 9:30 Is Central Bank Transparency Desirable?
Anne C. Sibert, Birkbeck College
Discussant: Petra M. Geraats, University of Cambridge
9:30 – 10:15 Central Bank Transparency Under Model Uncertainty
Stefano Eusepi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Discussant: Marco Hoeberichts, De Nederlandsche Bank and University of Amsterdam
10:15 – 11:00
The Value of Central Bank Transparency When Agents Are Learning
Michale Berardi, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies
Discussant: Peter Karadi, The Central Bank of Hungary
11:00 – 11:15
Coffee break
11:15 – 12:00
Central Bank Forecasts and Disclosure Policy: Why it Pays to Be Optimistic
Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger, CentER Tilburg University
Mewael F. Tesfaselassie, CentER Tilburg University
Discussant: Maria Demertzis, De Nederlandsche Bank and University of Amsterdam
12:00 – 12:45
Voting Transparency and the Optimal Remuneration of Central Bankers in a Monetary Union
Volker Hahn, University of Heidelberg
Discussant: Carsten Hefeker, University of Siegen and CESifo
12:45 – 14:15
Lunch
Second Session: Empirical Evidence
Chair: Jakob de Haan, University of Groningen and CESifo
14:15 – 15:00
Communication and Decision-Making by Central Bank Committees: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?
Michael Ehrmann, European Central Bank
Discussant: Jakob de Haan, University of Groningen and CESifo
15:00 – 15:45
The Impact of Central Bank Transparency on Infation Expectations
Carin van der Cruijsen, De Nederlandsche Bank and University of Amsterdam
Maria Demertzis, De Nederlandsche Bank and University of Amsterdam
Discussant: Marie Musard-Gies, IXIS Corporate and Investment Bank and University of Orleans
15:45 – 16:00
Coffee break
16:00 – 16:45
Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers’ Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording
Friedrich Heinemann, Centre for European Economic Research
Discussant: Carlo Rosa, London School of Economics
16:45 – 17:30
Were verbal efforts to support the euro effective? A high-frequency analysis of ECB statements
David-Jan Jansen, De Nederlandsche Bank
Jakob de Haan, University of Groningen and CESifo
Discussant: Marc Tomljanovich, Colgate University
17:30 – 18:15 Do financial markets react to Bank of England communication?
Rachel Reeves, Bank of England
Michael Sawicki, Bank of England
Discussant: Andrzej Sławiński, The National Bank of Poland and Warsaw School of Economics
Day two – 3 June
8:30 – 8:35
Opening of the second day of the conference
8:35 – 10:30
Panel Session
Chair: Krzysztof Rybiński, Deputy President of the NBP
Participants: Claes Berg, Riksbank
Sylvester C.W. Eijffinger, Tilburg University and CEPR
Bernhard Winkler, European Central Bank
10:30 – 10:45
Coffee break
Third Session: Special Topics
Chair: Krzysztof Rybiński, Deputy President of the NBP
10:45 – 11:30
Secrecy versus Selective Disclosure in Sterilized Foreign Exchange Interventions
Richard C. Barnett, Villanova University
Discussant: Lubos Komarek, Czech National Bank and Prague School of Economics
11:30 – 12:15
Credibility and Transparency. Some Evidence on Inflation Targeting in Poland
Tomasz Łyziak, National Bank of Poland
Joanna Mackiewicz, Warsaw University
Ewa Stanisławska, National Bank of Poland
Discussant: Dariusz Filar, The National Bank of Poland
12:15 – 12:30
Coffee break
12:30 – 13:15
Inflation expectations of Polish entrepreneurs. Does the central bank communication matter?
Anna Czogała, National Bank of Poland
Adam Kot, National Bank of Poland
Agnieszka Sawicka, National Bank of Poland
Discussant: Lucjan T. Orłowski, Sacred Heart University and Center for Social and Economic Research
13:15 – 14:00
Monetary Policy Transparency in the Inflation Targeting Countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland
Mariusz Jarmużek, Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE) and University of Warwick
Lucjan T. Orłowski, Sacred Heart University and Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
Artur Radziwiłł, Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE) and Birkbeck College
Discussant: Michał Brzoza – Brzezina, The National Bank of Poland
14:00 – 14:30
Closing of the conference
Conference papers were chosen by a Committee comprising of Sylvester Eijffinger, Jakob de Haan and Krzysztof Rybiński. The authors of conference papers are presented in conference materials. Only speakers presenting conference papers are included in this program.
October 7-8, 2004, Warsaw, Central Banking and the Financial System
A sound and effective financial system is a precondition of fast economic growth. Its efficiency and stability significantly contribute to the achievement of a number of crucial macroeconomic objectives such as price stability and sustainable and balanced output growth. Building such a system is a complex task, which exceeds the capacity of a single institution and therefore requires the involvement of a network of numerous entities, each equipped with particular competencies and responsibilities. Among them, central banks play a prominent role as they have long had a clear interest in fostering financial stability. This role, however, is not precisely and explicitly defined and it may change in an evolving environment. The conference is anticipated as a forum for discussion about interactions between central banks and the financial system, the role and a position of the central bank and challenges that lay ahead in times of increasingly globalized environment and financial instability.
This conference is also envisaged as an effort to bring together central bankers and academics. The organizers hope that it can serve as a forum where ideas and experiences can be exchanged and the ongoing debate about the role of central banks in relation with the financial system will be enriched by contributions made by all panelists and discussants.
The first session of the conference is devoted to the analysis of models and means of communication between central bank and financial markets with special emphasis on the United States experience.
The second session focuses on ways in which central banks can influence financial system stability. The policies pursued by central banks in times of financial and banking crises are analyzed and discussed and their impact assessed. The historical role of central banks as lenders of last resort, responsible for providing financial markets with emergency liquidity assistance is revisited and evaluated. Also the role of central banks in reducing volatility in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) is thoroughly examined.
The third session is intended to analyze the influence that financial markets exert on central banks. Specifically, issues of monetary transmission and assets prices will be elaborated on.
The fourth session concentrates on the assessment of new challenges arising for central banks. They stem from the emergence of new economy, electronic money, new technologies and changes in government securities supply.
During the fifth and last session the experiences of selected transition countries as far as influence of central banks on the stability and the development of financial system are concerned will be analyzed. Case studies of Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic will precede more general remarks and conclusions.
9.00-9.15 Opening of the conference
Jerzy Pruski – First Deputy President of the National Bank of Poland
9.15-9.45
An assessment of central banks’ pursuit of financial stability
Robert Pringle – Central Banking Publications
First Session
Communication between the central bank and financial markets
9.45-10.15 Market reaction to the publishing of inflation reports, monetary policy bias, open mouth interventions
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel – Central Bank of Chile
10.15-10.45 The United States experience – communication between the FED and the markets
Peter Bakstansky – Federal Reserve Bank of New York
10.45-11.00
Q & A
11.00-11.30 Coffee break
Second Session
Central banks’ influence on financial system stability
11.30-12.00 Central bank’s policies through a financial and banking crisis – making things better or worse?
Avinash Persaud –
GAM London Limited, Gresham College
12.00-12.30
Central bank as the lender of last resort – trendy or passe?
David Laidler –
University of Western Ontario
12.30-13.00
Have central banks reduced volatility in CEECs?
Laszlo Halpern –
Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Central European University, William Davidson Institute
13.00-13.15 Q & A
13.15-15.15
Lunch
Third Session
Financial markets’ influence on central banks
15.15-15.45 What role should asset prices play in monetary policy?
Frank Smets – European Central Bank
15.45-16.15 Does an efficient banking sector support or distort monetary transmission?
Carlo Cottarelli – International Monetary Fund
16.15-16.45
Coffee break
16.45-17.15 The elusive search for monetary and financial stability
Claudio Borio – Bank for International Settlements
17.15-17.45 Monetary policy in small open economies
Clemens Grafe – University of London
17.45-18.00 Q & A
20:00
Official reception at the Museum of John Paul II Collection.
You will find the invitation attached to the package of conference materials
Day Two – 8 October 2004
Fourth Session
Central bank and the financial system in the 21st century
9.00-9.30 What challenges does the new economy pose to central banking?
Bryan Chapple – Netherlands Central Bank
9.30-10.00 Central bank and electronic money – the impact of new technologies on monetary policy
Claudio Sardoni – University of Rome
10.00-10.30 What do changes in government securities supply mean for monetary policy?
Roberto Blanco – Bank of Spain
10.30-10.45
Q & A
10.45-11.15 Coffee break
Fifth Session
Influence of central banks on the stability and development of financial systems – transition countries’ experience since 1989
11.15-11.45 Poland – case study
Jerzy Pruski – National Bank of Poland
11.45-12.15 Hungary – case study
Tamas Kalman – National Bank of Hungary
12.15-12.45 Czech Republic – case study
Pavel Racocha – Czech National Bank
12.45-13.00
Q & A
13.00-13.30
Coffee break
13.30-14.00
Transformation of the financial system – summary and conclusions
Peter Backe – European Central Bank
14.00-14.30
Closing of the conference
Krzysztof Rybiński – Deputy President of the National Bank of Poland
14.30-16.30
Lunch
Papers
Peter Backe
presentation
Roberto Blanco
paper
presentation
Claudio Borio
paper
presentation
Bryan Chapple
paper
presentation
Clemens Grafe
paper
presentation
Laszlo Halpern
presentation
David Laidler
paper
Robert Pringle
presentation
Jerzy Pruski
presentation
Pavel Racocha
paper
presentation
Claudio Sardoni
paper
presentation
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
presentation
Frank Smets
paper
presentation
Zsamboki Balazs
presentation
November 27-28, 2003, Zalesie Gorne, Potential Output and Barriers to Growth
Introduction
The aim of this scientific conference organised by the National Bank of Poland is to assess the short-run development of the economy, as well as its possibilities of a long-run growth. Due to the fact that monetary policy should take into consideration both time perspectives, it is relevant to focus on the determinants of the demand and the supply side of the economy.
These considerations have prompted the NBP to organise the conference entitled “Potential output and barriers to growth”. The basic purpose of this year’s meeting is to exchange views on:
relevance of the short-run development of the economy compared and its long-run growth path,
determinants of the long-run growth and ability of various disfunctions to dampen the economy,
convergence among countries with different economies, especially in light of European Union membership.
Conference structure and subjects
Output gap: definitions, measurement and use
This session will cover the relevance of output gap as an indicator of economic disequlibrium in performing monetary policy. The focus will be put on alternative methods used in calculating the indicator – starting from a traditional structural production function approach and ending with decompositions of output according to its stochastic properties. We will also deal with the influence of total factor productivity on economic growth. As an important factor of uncertainty surrounding estimates of output gap, the information content of real-time estimates and its reliability will be discussed.
Determinants of economic growth: theory and practice
The subjects covered during the second session will include the assessment of economic parameters and business environment and their impact on economic growth, especially in cases when they become burden and dampen the potential long-run growth that the economy can achieve. The discussion will focus on determinants originating in technological progress, processes of innovation and accumulation, developments of financial markets and construction of tax system. The ineffectiveness and lack of flexibility of labour markets will also be included as a factor determining slower development of the economy. As an important phenomenon in case of accession countries this session will also cover the impact of EU and EMU membership on a long-run growth.
Economic growth and real convergence
The last session of the conference will deal with the hypothesis of declining discrepancy between countries. The real convergence will be discussed in case of regional differences within the country and between countries. The convergence within the European Union countries will be discussed, as well as possibilities of accessing countries to converge after the accession. The impact of the EU’s Structural and Cohesion Funds on real convergence will be also dealt with as an important adjustment process.
Andrzej S. Bratkowski,
Deputy President of the National Bank of Poland
Opening Address
Gerhard Rünstler
ECB
The Information Content of Real-Time Output Gap Estimates: an Application for the Euro Area
Bruce Fallick,
Federal Reserve Board
Models and Judgement in the Estimation of U.S. Potential Output
Christian Schumacher,
Bundesbank
Forecasting Uncertainty of Output Gap Estimates
Michał Gradzewicz, Marcin Kolasa,
National Bank of Poland
Estimating of Output Gap in the Polish Economy: VECM Approach
Valerie Cerra,
IMF
Sweta Saxena,
University of Pittsburgh
Alternative Methods of Estimation Potential Output and Gap: An Application to Sweden
Jean Phillippe Cayen,
Bank of Canada
The Reliability of Output Gap estimators in Canada
Wojciech S. Maliszewski,
IMF
Measures of Output Gap and Monetary Policy in Poland
Werner Röger,
European Commission
The Production function approach to calculating potential growth and output gaps – EU and US
Session II: Determinants of Economic Growth: Theory and Practice
Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma
University of Kent
Cycles, Aggregate Demand and Growth
Zbigniew Żółkiewski, Marcin Kolasa,
National Bank of Poland
The Total Factor Productivity and the Potential Output in Poland
Ryszard Rapacki,
SGH
The Feasibility of Growth Acceleration in Poland
Andries Brandsma,
JRC Sevilla
Insights on Technological Change and How It Would Affect Economic Growth and the Catching Up of The New Member States of the EU
Krzysztof Kluza,
SGH, PZU
Stanislaw Kluza,
SGH, BGŻ
Monetary Assets Expenditures and Economic Growth
Kazimierz Orzechowski,
Warsaw University of Technology
Tax System Disfunctions as Barrier to Growth
Paweł Strzelecki, Jacek Socha,
National Bank of Poland
Employment Determinants of Economic Growth in Poland
Jacek Socha, Wojciech Rogowski,
National Bank of Poland
Tomasz Kopczewski,
Warsaw University
Soft Budget Constraints in Polish Manufacturing – Evidence from Panel Data
Session III: Economic Growth and Real Convergence
Reiner Martin
ECB
The Impact of the EU’s Structural and Cohesion Funds on Real Convergence in the EU
Presentation
Witold Orłowski
NOBE
Real Convergence in Central and Eastern Europe
Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald,
OeNB
Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma,
Uni of Vienna
Growth, Convergence and EU Membership
Tomasz Tokarski,
Jagiellonian University, Cracow
Pawel Gajewski,
University of Lodz
Real Convergence in Poland – Regional Approach
Adam B. Czyżewski,
Director, Macroeconomic and Structural Analysis Department
October 23-24, 2003, Warsaw, Successes and Failures in Real Convergence
Over the last fourteen years, the Polish economy has undergone significant structural changes. Inflation has
been cut to a single digit level while the GDP has increased by 30% above the level in 1989. Over 70% of the
national product is now generated by the private sector. However, we are still struggling with the difficult process of privatisation.
Poland is seen as an example of successful economic reform. However, there are still numerous threats, and the
initial successes may turn into failures of disastrous consequences.
This has prompted the National Bank of Poland to organise this international scientific conference: “Successes and failures in real convergence”.
The basic purpose of this year’s conference is to exchange views on:
• how to benefit from the forthcoming accession of Poland to the European Union;
• the experiences of countries which have successfully caught up and those that have failed and will have to introduce structural reforms
October 24-25, 2002, Falenty n/Warsaw, Monetary Policy in the Environment of Structural Changes
Introduction
The aim of the NBP’s Scientific Conference “Monetary Policy in the Environment of Structural Changes” is to identify the monetary policy determinants resulting from the effectiveness of the on-going structural changes. The discussion will focus on three areas: (1) fiscal and monetary policy relations, (2) labour market structures and (3) structural changes in the economy. Particular monetary policy impulses differ in their impact, which depends on the ownership structures of enterprises in the economy, its sectoral make-up, as well as quality of the financial law, labour market flexibility and economic policy coordination. The conference will provide an opportunity to study the theoretical aspects of the above-mentioned interrelations, as instanced by cases from several countries. It is the organisers’ ambition that this year’s NBP conference become a seminal milestone in the on-going discussion on the overarching issues (current and long-term) connected with the determinants of monetary policy, as implementing by the central bank.
This year’s conference is yet another annual meeting of the type and cycle organised by the central bank for over twenty years. The first conferences covered selected theoretical and practical issues of lending in Poland, instruments of lending policy and their impact on the economic equilibrium. The latter half of the eighties started to be dominated by topics relating to the strengthening of currency and theoretical and practical aspects of banking system and monetary policy reform. And since the nineties conference organisers have focused on the role of the banking sector and monetary policy in the process of economic transformation and harmonisation with EU requirements. This is shown by the conference titles:
1990 Operation of the Banking System and Monetary Equilibrium
1991 Banking Sector in the Process of Systemic Transformation
1992 Monetary Policy and the Banking Sector in the context of Current Economic Policy Problems
1993 Monetary Policy, Economic Growth and Structural Changes in Poland’s Economy
1994 Central Bank in the Polish Market Economy
1995 Financial Markets in Poland
1996 Banking System and Monetary Policy vis a vis Market Challenges in Poland
1997 Monetary Policy and the Banking System vis a vis European Monetary Integration
1998 Strategic and Operational Problems of Monetary Policy
1999 Monetary Policy and National and International Challenges
2000 Macro and Microeconomic Determinants of Monetary Policy Effectiveness
2001 Poland’s Road to the Euro
Until 1999 conference participants were exclusively members of the Polish scholarly community and Polish business practitioners. In 2000 representatives of foreign central banks (Czech Republic and Hungary) were invited for the first time. Last year’s conference “Poland’s Road to the Euro”, which covered aspects of the process of monetary integration with EU countries, was already a fully-fledged international symposium.
Likewise this year. In addition to domestic participants the conference will include several dozen representatives of foreign central banks, the European Central Bank and international financial institutions. The management of the National Bank of Poland attaches great importance to this meeting of scholars, businesspeople, politicians and monetary policy practitioners from Poland and abroad.
The conference will thus provide an opportunity for experts, Polish and foreign alike, to shed some light upon the extent of progress achieved in economic reform and importance of structural factors to the process of monetary policy implementation, in particular on the road to the Economic and Monetary Union.
9:00 – 10:00 Registration
10:00 Introduction –
– dr Adam Czyżewski – Head of Macroeconomic and Structural Analysis Department,
National Bank of Poland
10:00 – 10:15 Opening of the Conference –
– Prof. Leszek Balcerowicz – President of the National Bank of Poland
Session I
Structural Changes and the Effectiveness of Monetary policy
10:15 – 13:00
– Chaired by prof. Cezary Józefiak , Member of the Monetary Policy Council,
“On Selected Interrelations Between Structural Changes and Monetary Policy” –
– Andrzej Wojtyna – University of Economics, Krakow
“Structural Changes vs. Monetary Policy” –
– Francesco Lippi – Bank of Italy, CEPR
“Structural Factors in Contemporary Theories of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism” –
– Ryszard Kokoszczyński, – National Bank of Poland
– Tomasz Łyziak, – National Bank of Poland
– Ewa Wróbel – National Bank of Poland
“The Effects of Structural Changes in the Financial Sector on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism” –
– Jan Marc Berk – De Nederlandsche Bank
Coffee break
– Chaired by Dr Grzegorz Wójtowicz, Member of the Monetary Policy Council
“Ownership Structure in the Hungarian Banking Sector and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy” –
– Zsolt Kondrat, – National Bank of Hungary
– Gergely Koczan, – National Bank of Hungary
“Foreign Capital in the Polish Banking Sector and the Effectiveness of Monetary policy” –
– Marcin Gruszczyński, – Warsaw University
– Katarzyna Dąbrowska, – Warsaw University
“Changes in Structure of Large and Medium Enterprises in Times of Transformation and the Impact of Monetary Policy” –
– Piotr Boguszewski – National Bank of Poland
“Current Trends in State-owned Industries – Signals for the Monetary Policy” –
– Wojciech Rogowski – National Bank of Poland
Comments by:
Jan Macieja, Polish Academy of Sciences, Witold Jakóbik, Polish Academy of Sciences, Andrzej Raczko, University of Lodz, Krzysztof Rybiński, Bank BPH-PBK SA, Group HVB
Questions and Discussion
Lunch
Session II
Labour Markets and Monetary Policy
14:00 – 17:30
– Chaired by Dr Jerzy Pruski, Member of the Monetary Policy Council
“Economic Growth and Demand for Labour” –
– Adam B. Czyżewski – National Bank of Poland
“Job Creation and Job Destruction in Poland” –
– Jan Rutkowski – The World Bank
“Structural Determinants of Natural Rate of Unemployment” –
– Eugeniusz Kwiatkowski – University of Lodz
“Productivity Growth and New Technologies – the Need for Structural Reform” –
– Neale O. Kennedy – European Central Bank
– Focco Vijselaar – European Central Bank
“New Economy and Monetary Policy” –
– Gilbert Cette – Bank of France
Comments by:
Marek Góra, Warsaw School od Economics, Tomasz Tokarski, University of Lodz, Włodzimierz Szpringer, Warsaw School of Economics, Janusz Jankowiak, BRE Bank SA
Questions and Discussion
Reception
Second day, October, 25
9:00 – 10:00 Special Lecture – Structural Issues for Successful Inflation Targeting in Transition Countries
– Prof. Frederic S. Mishkin – Columbia University
Questions and Discussion
Session III
Interrelations between Fiscal and Monetary Policy
10:30 – 13:45
– Chaired by: prof. Wiesława Ziółkowska, Member of the Monetary Policy Council
“Fiscal Policy Problems in Formulating a Policy Mix” –
– Andrzej Wernik – Institute of Finance
“The Optimum Policy Mix – What Does the US Experiences Tell Us?” –
– Kenneth Kuttner – Federal Reserve Bank, New York
Coffee break
“The ECB’s Monetary Policy and its Relation to Fiscal Policy” –
– Klaus Masuch – European Central Bank
“Factors Influencing T-Bond Yields in Poland: From Portfolio Investors’ Perspective” –
– Andrzej Sławiński – National Bank of Poland
– Stanisław Kluza – Warsaw School of Economics
“The Impact of Public Borrowing Needs on the Yield Curve in Poland” –
– Piotr Marczak – Ministry of Finance
Comments by: Wojciech Misiąg, Instytut Badań nad Gospodarką Rynkową, Mirosław Gronicki, Warsaw School of Economics, Dariusz Filar, Bank Pekao SA, group Unicredito Italiano, Małgorzata Markiewicz, CASE
Questions and Discussion
Closing Remarks –
– dr Andrzej S. Bratkowski – Vice President of the National Bank of Poland
Lunch
Papers
Conference Special Guest
Session 1 – Structural Changes and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
F. Lippi (Bank of Italy, CEPR): Monetary Policy with Unobserved Potential Output
Session 2 – Labour Markets and Monetary Policy
A. Czyżewski (National Bank of Poland): Economic Growth and Demand for Labour
J. Rutkowski (The World Bank): Job Creation and Job Destruction in Poland
E. Kwiatkowski (University of Lodz): Structural Determinants of Natural Rate of Unemployment
G. Cette (Bank of France): New Economy and Monetary Policy
Session 3 – Interrelations between Fiscal and Monetary Policy
A. Wernik (Finance Institute): Fiscal Policy Problems in Formulating a Policy Mix
K. Masuch (European Central Bank): The EBC’s Monetary Policy and its Relation to Fiscal Policy
P. Marczak (Ministry of Finance): The Impact of Public Borrowing Needs on The Yield Curve in Poland
October 22-23, 2001, Falenty n/ Warsaw, The Polish Way to the Euro
In 2000 we expanded the formula of the annual scholarly conference organised by the NBP’s Research Department by inviting speakers from the central banks of Hungary and the Czech Republic. But this year’s NBP conference „Poland’s Way to the Euro”, which took place on 22 and 23 October 2001 in Warsaw-Falenty, went fully international and its scientific and organisational standards won recognition of its participants. This year’s conference covered issues connected with Poland’s EU monetary integration which in the coming years will be critical to NBP monetary policy, and not only. The first session sought to answer the question about the strategy of Poland’s EMU accession which would enable the optimum alignment of the real and nominal convergence processes. The sessions held on the second day of the conference allowed to focus on more detailed issues. The morning discussion tackled accession countries’ ability to meet the Maastricht criteria. The discussion included the consequences of the Balassa-Samuelson effect and other sources of inflation divergences in different countries. The afternoon session discussed the benefits and costs of joining the eurozone. Credit for the high scholarly standards of the conference should first of all be given to the authors of the papers. They included well-known foreign economists such as Ricardo Hausmann, Daniel Gros or Fabrizio Corricelli. Papers were also presented by many leading top economists specialising in various aspects of Poland’s EU monetary integration. Very interesting studies were also prepared by experts from the ECB, european national central banks and representatives of the NBP. The conference’s success was also possible thanks to the active participation of its remaining actors. The smooth running of a conference with so many papers is also a success of the moderators of its three sessions – Professors Marek Dàbrowski and Dariusz Rosati and Dr. Bogusław Grabowski. The Falenty conference set a record in terms of the number of participants: there were 180 of those from 15 countries. A professional organisation of so big a conference would hardly be possible without the participation of other NPB Departments: The President’s Office and Social Communication Department. This issue presents papers from the Falenty Conference in the order of delivery along with a report on the proceedings. I wish you an interesting reading.