Conferences NBP | 2015-2009
NBP Conferences 2015-2009 | Information | DownloadsNBP Conferences 2015-2009 | Information | Downloads
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2015 Year
Warsaw, 14-15 December 2015, The Irving Fisher Committee Workshop
Combining micro and macro statistical data for financial stability analysis.
Experiences, opportunities and challenges.
Financial stability requires continuous monitoring of the processes occurring at the macro and micro level of the financial system. These levels interact with each other, highlighting the need for analysing their bidirectional relationships. This dual nature of financial stability is reflected in the recent financial regulations introduced at an international and national level. It challenges statistical systems that were addressing in a separate way the micro perspective of particular financial institutions and the macro point of view of regulators or central banks.
The conference is aimed at presenting theories and practical applications of statistical data and frameworks, trying to combine both the micro and macro aspect of financial stability analyses. Special attention will be paid to integrated solutions designed to analyse the interdependencies between these two dimensions of financial systems’ stability.
Submission of papers:
If you are interested in presenting a paper at the IFC-NBP Workshop, please submit an abstract of the proposed paper to the Irving Fisher Committee Secretariat by 30 September 2015 (e-mail: IFC.Secretariat@BIS.org) with a copy to Mr Marcin Lupinski, NBP Statistics Department (e-mail: Marcin.Lupinski@nbp.pl ). We would further request that the final paper and the presentation should be submitted latest by 15 November 2015. The presented papers and the workshop proceedings will be published in the IFC Bulletin. If you have any queries, please contact the IFC Secretariat.
Registration:
We would highly appreciate it if you could confirm your participation together with any other participant from your institution latest by 30 September 2015. Please inform the IFC Secretariat the names and e-mail addresses of the prospective participants. The NBP will send the prospective participants an e-mail with a link to register for the meeting online. The link will be activated on 30 September and the participants should register latest by 31 October 2015.
Contact:
We are looking forward to your participation and contribution.
Warsaw, 30 November – 2 December 2015, 6th Annual International Conference on Central Bank Business Surveys
6th Annual International Conference on Central Bank Business Surveys will provide an excellent opportunity to discuss recent experiences in the area of conducting business surveys by central banks and using survey results for monetary policy purposes. The following topics will receive special attention:
Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty and evaluating its impact on enterprises’ decisions and macroeconomic performance;
Using survey data in analysing links between the financial sector and the real economy;
Behaviour of enterprises in the environment of low inflation/deflation;
Communication of central banks and information processing by enterprises.
Additionally, on 2 December 2015, a post-conference meeting organized jointly with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta will be held. The meeting will focus on best practices in gathering and coding information from interviews with enterprises.
In case of any questions please contact: conference@nbp.pl
Zalesie Gorne (near Warsaw), 5-6 listopada 2015, Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis
Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop
Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis (2015 edition)
November 5-6, 2015
Narodowy Bank Polski training center in Zalesie Górne (near Warsaw)
The papers from the 2013 edition of the workshop can be found here:
Submission:
To have a paper considered for inclusion in the workshop, please submit it until September 7, 2015 to: realestateworkshop@nbp.pl
Accommodation:
Narodowy Bank Polski will provide the transport from and to the Warsaw Chopin Airport and the accommodation at the NBP training facility in Zalesie Górne.
Important dates:
September 7, 2015 – paper submission deadline
September 30, 2015 – author notification
From September 30, 2015 – registration
November 5-6, 2015 – workshop
Organizing / scientific committee:
Jacek Łaszek
Hanna Augustyniak
Krzysztof Olszewski
Joanna Waszczuk
In case of any questions please contact:
Anna Czechowicz
Anna.Czechowicz@nbp.pl
Phone: +48 22 653 13 68
Mobile: +48 605 162 645
Krzysztof Olszewski
Krzysztof.Olszewski@nbp.pl
Warsaw, 16-17 October 2015, Boosting EU Competitiveness – The Role of the CESEE Countries
The CEEI/CFEE 2015 will be a unique joint edition of two annual conferences, the Conference on European Economic Integration (CEEI) 2015 of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and the Conference on the Future of the European Economy (CFEE) 2015 of Narodowy Bank Polski, held under the heading BOOSTING EU COMPETITIVENESS – The Role of the CESEE Countries.
The CEEI and CFEE 2015 focus on long-term European growth prospects and competitiveness – a major objective of the Lisbon and Europe 2020 Strategies. In the wake of the recent crisis and given the urgency of anti-crisis measures and assistance programmes, economic analysis and policymaking have paid less attention to the issues these long-term strategies intended to address: how to increase productivity and resist the competitive pressures of a globalised economy. Moreover, the crisis showed that decreasing competitiveness poses a challenge for both the European Union as a whole and individual Member States at different stages of integration. In particular for Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE), competitiveness is a key ingredient in the convergence process. The joint conference will adopt a comprehensive view and discuss various dimensions of competitiveness: price and cost developments, innovation, labour market issues, the role and design of structural and industrial policies, and the effects of global supply chains.
Please be informed that admission to the conference is by personal invitation only.
Conference venue: Sheraton Warsaw Hotel, 2 Prusa Street, Warsaw
Download:
Presentations
Bas B. Bakker, Convergence of the EU new members states: Past, Present and Future
Iain Begg, Peering into the crystal ball CESEE growth … and other reflections on the conference
Daniel Gros, EU competitiveness: what has gone right, What has gone wrong?
Beata Smarzyńska Javorcik, Harnessing FDI to Boost Economic Growth
Michael A. Landesmann, Dealing with structural external imbalances in the European economy
Filippo di Mauro, Macro implications of Global Value Chains integration: CompNet contribution
Brian Pinto, EU Structural Policies
Michał Rubaszek, EU structural policies and euro adoption in CEE countries
Alain de Serres, Productivity and competitiveness: a look at the key structural drivers
Peter Sinclair, Boosting EU Competitiveness: the role of the CESEE Countries
Hylke Vandenbussche, Competitiveness: a micro-perspective
Boris Vujčić, Boosting EU competitiveness Contribution to Growth – The Role of the CESEE Countries
Linda Yueh, Globalisation, Growth, China
Marina Wes, Boosting EU Competitiveness
Julia Wörz, Nonprice components of market share gains – Evidence for EU countries
Warsaw, 28-29 September 2015, NBP Workshop on Forecasting
The workshop will provide an opportunity to share the latest practical solutions in forecasting used by central banks and other institutions and to discuss relevant research developments. Modelling and forecasting of growth, inflation and related higher-frequency indicators is within the scope of the workshop. Empirical and theoretical submissions are welcome. Specific topics include, but are not limited to the following:
Univariate and multivariate density forecasts: evaluation, combination, presentation
Applications of unobserved component models, non-linear or non-Gaussian models
Modelling of structural instabilities and time varying relationships
Incorporating short time series and experts’ knowledge into forecasts
Dealing with data features in nowcasting: mixed frequencies, ragged edges, real time data, missing observations
Our intention is to provide a sound theoretical background for discussing up-to-date applied forecasting experiences. The workshop is targeted at analysts employed at forecasting units of central banks and forecasting institutions as well as academics interested in the field. The scientific programme will include contributed talks and poster presentations.
Keynote speakers:
Gianni Amisano (Federal Reserve Board)
Todd Clark (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
Andrew Harvey (University of Cambridge)
Mike West (Duke University)
Contact:
Should you have any questions, please contact: forecasting@nbp.pl
Warsaw, 22-24 June 2015, 4th NBP Summer Workshop
The 4th NBP Summer Workshop is an annual event that brings together Polish economists affiliated with both domestic and foreign institutions. Its aims are to provide space for the exchange of ideas and to lay the foundations for future cooperation.
The participants present their original work and discuss issues related to macroeconomics and finance. It is a place where the discussion is lively and tough questions are asked.
Information on participation:
Participation in the workshop is free of charge
The workshop will be held in English (interpretation into Polish will not be provided)
Workshop venue
The workshop will take place at the premises of Narodowy Bank Polski, 11/21 Świętokrzyska Street, Warsaw, room 129 F.
Download:
Inequalities in an OLG economy with heterogeneous cohorts and pension systems
Marcin Bielecki, Joanna Tyrowicz, Krzysztof Makarski, Marcin Waniek
International Monetary Policy Spillovers at the Zero Lower Bound
Alex Haberis, Anna Lipińska
Top incomes`growth and cyclicality
Michael Bordo, Agnieszka Markiewicz, Christopher Meissner
Changes in the Structure of the European Union Banking Sectors—The Role of Competition between Banks
Małgorzata Pawłowska
Optimal Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound
Costas Azariadis, James Bullard, Aarti Singh, Jacek Suda
Preventing Self-fulfilling Debt Crises
Michal Szkup
Programme committee:
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Ryszard Kokoszczyński, Marcin Kolasa, Krzysztof Makarski, Jan Werner
Organizing committee:
Anna Czechowicz, Justyna Lalik
Contact:
Warsaw, 25-27 June 2015, SED Annual Meeting 2015
The Annual Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics (SED) will be held in Warsaw from 25 to 27 June 2015. This event is co-organized by Narodowy Bank Polski and the SED in partnership with the University of Warsaw. This is one of the most prestigious scientific conferences on economics in the world.
Around 420 papers will be presented at the meeting, of which many written by renowned economists. The conference programme includes three plenary sessions and 144 smaller parallel sessions.
The SED conference is mostly renowned for papers on dynamic macroeconomics. However, papers presented on the conference cover a wide range of economic issues. The special emphasis is on a dynamic approach to the economic problems. Topics discussed at the conference include, among others, macroeconomics, international macroeconomics, international trade, economic growth, public finance, industrial organization, labour market, banking and finance, applied econometrics, theory and applied theory.
The Society for Economic Dynamics promotes and supports economic research. This goal is being achieved by publishing the prestigious quarterly Review of Economic Dynamics which has become one of the leading macroeconomic journals and organizing the Annual Meetings of the SED which constitute the acclaimed forum for the exchange of views, new ideas and methods applied in economics. The former SED Presidents include:
- Edward Prescott (Arizona State University and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 2004 Nobel Prize in Economics),
- Dale Mortensen (Northwestern University, 2010 Nobel Prize in Economics),
- Thomas Cooley (New York University, Stern),
- Boyan Jovanovic (New York University),
- David Levine (Washington University, St. Louis),
- Richard Rogerson (Princeton University),
- Ramon Marimon (Universitat Pompeu Fabra and European University Institute).
Thomas Sargent (New York University and Federal Reserve of Minneapolis, 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics) is one of the SED’s co-founders.
2014 Year
Warszawa, 17-18 grudnia 2014, Identification in Macroeconomics
The problem of model identification is common to all sciences where we postulate existence of the underlying structure. Models used in macroeconomics are no exception. To identify the model means to be able to conduct unambiguous economic analysis on the basis of the model. Since unidentified models can not be used as “arguments’ providers” in economic policy debates, the identification issue is very important.
As resolving the identification problem is a very first step in developing any model methodology one may be surprised that two of the most popular model methodologies used in applied macro i.e. Structural Vector AutoRegression (SVAR) and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, are not yet fully explored from the identification perspective. The aim of the workshop is to bring researchers from all over the world who are dissatisfied with this state of affairs. Since the topic of our workshop is ambitious we gained the best possible support from the well known experts in the field
Keynote speakers:
Fabio Canova (European University Institute and CEPR)
Ivana Komunjer (University of California, San Diego)
Daniel F. Waggoner (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
Tao Zha (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Emory University and NBER)
Should you have any questions, please contact: identification-conference@nbp.pl
Useful information:
Participation in the Workshop is free of charge.
The Workshop will be held in English.
Workshop Venue
The Workshop will take place at the premises of Narodowy Bank Polski, 11/21 Świętokrzyska Street, Warsaw, Grabski Hall.
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Warsaw, 13-14 November 2014, Short Term Forecasting
The workshop will provide an opportunity to share the latest practical solutions in short-term forecasting used by central banks and other institutions and to discuss relevant research developments. Empirical and theoretical submissions are welcome.
Workshop topics include, but are not limited to:
Density forecast combination: practical solutions, theoretical foundations and evaluation
Modeling of structural instabilities and time varying relationships
Incorporating short time series and experts’ knowledge into forecasts
Dealing with data features in nowcasting: mixed frequencies, ragged edges, real time data, missing observations
Evaluation and presentation of multivariate forecasts
Our intention is to provide a sound theoretical background for discussing up-to-date applied forecasting experiences. The workshop is targeted at analysts employed at forecasting units of central banks and forecasting institutions, though contributions and participation of academics interested in the field is also welcome. The scientific program will include contributed talks and poster presentations.
Keynote speakers
Gianni Amisano (European Central Bank),
Herman K. van Dijk (Erasmus University Rotterdam and VU University Amsterdam).
Invited speakers
Marek Jarociński (European Central Bank),
Sylvia Kaufmann (Study Center Gerzensee),
Simon Price (Bank of England and City University, London),
Francesco Ravazzolo (Norges Bank),
Shaun Vahey (Warwick University).
Should you wish to participate in the workshop, please contact: forecasting@nbp.pl
Warsaw, 24 October 2014, Building Market Economies in Europe: Lessons and Challenges after 25 Years of Transition 4th Edition of the Annual NBP Conference on The Future of the European Economy
The fourth edition of the Annual NBP Conference on The Future of the European Economy, to be held on 24 October 2014 in Warsaw, will focus on Building Market Economies in Europe: Lessons and Challenges after 25 Years of Transition. This edition of the Annual NBP Conference will be unique as a joint project of two institutions – Narodowy Bank Polski and the International Monetary Fund.
The objective of the conference is to verify and assess the process of the building of market economies in Europe after 25 years, including lessons learnt from transition and focusing on the challenges lying ahead.
The conference will be held in English and arranged into four discussion panels devoted to particular economic components necessary for the building of market economies.
The foundation: monetary and exchange rate policy
The first panel will discuss the various approaches to monetary and exchange rate policies that have established foundations on which to build broader policy frameworks. Special attention will be given to inflation-targeting frameworks.
Bricks and mortar: economic convergence
Real economic growth represents the structure of the building of the market economy. This process will be the focus of the second panel. Economic convergence, through which transition countries catch up with the advanced market economies, will be examined in detail, including its driving forces and the priorities to retain competitiveness.
The plumbing: financial sector development
Financial sector development provides critical infrastructure to the economy, channelling the financial flows of credit and investment. The third panel’s main theme will be political and structural changes which took place in the financial sector of transition economies. Issues to be discussed include advantages and disadvantages of the dominance of foreign capital and of the so-called “underdevelopment” of the financial sector.
“Crystal Ball” Panel. Building for the future: what have we learned from the past 25 years and what is to come in the next 25?
The final, “crystal ball” panel will focus on what transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe have learned for the last 25 years and where they are going in the next 25. This panel is envisaged as a free, frank and interdisciplinary exchange of views.
Admission to the conference is by personal invitation only.
Download:
Professor Marek Belka’s inaugural speech at the Future of the European Economy Conference
Building Market Economies in Europe Lessons and Challenges after 25 Years of Transition
By David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
25 Years of Transition, Post-Communist Europe and the IMF, Regional Economic Issues
Special Report
Governor Mugur Isărescu’s intervention as Chairman of Panel I – The Foundation Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies
Building Market Economies in Europe – Aasim M. Husain Deputy Director European Department, IMF
Monetary and exchange rate policies in the Central and Eastern Europe: lessons and challenges – Jakub Borowski Chief Economist Credit Agricole Bank Polska S.A.
Exchange rate policy: Choices, challenges, constraints – Jeffry A. Frieden Harvard University
Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia – Ksenia Yudaeva, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia
Socio-economic convergence (?) in the enlarged European Union – László Andor EU Commissioner for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion
25 Years of Transition: Convergence Outlook – Erik Berglof Chief Economist, EBRD
CEE and CIS Economies: Uncertain Prospects of Economic Convergence – Marek Dąbrowski, Fellow, CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research,
Presentation shown at the conference – Christian Keller, Managing Director and Head of Economics Research, Barclays
Building Market Economies in Europe: Lessons and Challenges after 25 Years of Transition Joint NBP-IMF conference – Boštjan Jazbec Governor, Banka Slovenije
The Plumbing: Financial Sector Development – Mr. Bozidar Djelic Managing Director, Lazard Sovereign Advisory Group Former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of Serbia
Optimal Banking Sector Structure – Stefan Kawalec President, Capital strategy
Warsaw, 30 June-4 July 2014, 3rd NBP Summer Workshop
The 3rd NBP Summer Workshop is an annual event that brings together Polish economists affiliated with both foreign and domestic institutions. It aims to provide a venue for the exchange of ideas and creates a foundation for future cooperation.
The participants present their original work and discuss issues related to macroeconomics and finance. It is a place where discussion is lively and tough questions are asked.
The recent financial crisis redefined the priorities and paradigms in economics. One of the main developments that is in the area of special interest for central banks is the development of theory linking the macroeconomy and the financial sector. This will be the main topic of the workshop. But, other issues like the sovereign debt crisis, zero-bound policy, labour share and econometric models will be covered as well.
Useful information:
Participation in the Workshop is free of charge
The Workshop will be held in English
Workshop Venue
The Workshop will take place at the premises of Narodowy Bank Polski, 11/21 Świętokrzyska Street, Warsaw, room 129 F.
Registration
We kindly ask you to register for the Workshop on line by 24 June 2014.
Programme committee:
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Ryszard Kokoszczyński, Krzysztof Makarski, Jan Werner
Organizing committee:
Krzysztof Makarski, Karolina Adamczyk
Contact:
e-mail: workshop@nbp.pl
Warsaw, May 14-16, 2014, EBRD Annual Meeting & Business Forum Warsaw 2014
While transition of Central Europe turns 25, over 2,500 IFI’s representatives, economists, policy makers and business people will gather on 14-16 May 2014 in Warsaw, Poland for one of the most significant global economic events – the Twenty Third Annual Meeting of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
The conference will be attended by heads of governments, ministers, investors, high-level representatives of the private sector and financial institutions. The event will be organised at the unique venue – National Stadium in Warsaw which will be turned from a football pitch into a convention centre for a few days, with 10 conference rooms and more than 100 offices. The organizer on the Polish side is Narodowy Bank Polski.
EBRD Annual Meeting
The conference will be attended by heads of governments, ministers, investors, high-level representatives of the private sector and financial institutions. The event will be organised at the unique venue – National Stadium in Warsaw which will be turned from a football pitch into a convention centre for a few days, with 10 conference rooms and more than 100 offices. The organizer on the Polish side is Narodowy Bank Polski.
The EBRD Annual Meeting will be accompanied by the EBRD Business Forum entitled Changing Economies, Changing Lives that will revolve around the profound transformation of the last 25 years – and will cast a probing eye on what the next 25 years will bring. The Forum will provide an outlook on the current global investment situation based on the EBRD annual reports which will be released during the meeting. The participants of the Business Forum will have an opportunity to discuss investments in governance, employment, infrastructure, sustainable development among other themes. The Forum will host such speakers as Aleksander Kwasniewski – former President of Poland, Daniela Bobeva – Deputy Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Djoomart Ortobaev – Deputy Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan, Marek Belka – President of Narodowy Bank Polski, former Prime Minister of Poland, Jan Krzysztof Bielecki – Chairman of the Economic Council of the Prime Minister, former Prime Minister of Poland, Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz – Mayor of Warsaw, former President of Narodowy Bank Polski, Werner Hoyer – President of the European Investment Bank. The programme will provide an opportunity for dialogue between civil society representatives and the EBRD.
Fascinating Times: 25 Years of Transition in Central Europe
During the EBRD Annual Meeting 2014 in Warsaw, Narodowy Bank Polski organizes a Host Country event entitled Fascinating Times: 25 Years of Transition in Central Europe to be held on 14 May 2014 at the National Stadium in Warsaw, the main venue of the EBRD Annual Meeting 2014.
The Fascinating Times is planned as a dynamic conference, encompassing a short feature film produced especially for this occasion. Oscar® nominee for the film Rabbit à la Berlin Bartosz Konopka, the author of the movie, is one of the most awarded young Polish filmmakers. The scenario of the event includes also presentations of various aspects of economic and political transition, including its consequences for the private sector, society, education, lifestyle, culture and media. Process of transition will be presented with a wide spectrum of consequences for different actors taking part in it. The aim of this event is also to carry artistic value throughout the event and leave the audience inspired.
About European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) was established in 1991 to help build a new, post-Cold War era in Central and Eastern Europe. It has since played a historic role and gained unique expertise in fostering change in the region and beyond.
The EBRD is an international financial institution, owned by 64 countries, the European Union and the European Investment Bank. The EBRD supports projects from Central Europe to Central Asia and Southern and Eastern Mediterranean. Investing primarily in private sector clients whose needs cannot be fully met by the market, the Bank fosters transition towards open and democratic market economies.
More information on EBRD www.ebrd.com
Warsaw, April 15, 2014, A Decade of Mobility Poles in Contemporary Migration Spaces
Organisers:
Centre of Migration Research University of Warsaw (CMR UW) & National Bank of Poland (NBP)
Partners:
Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), Committee for Migration Studies, Polish Academy of Sciences (KBnM PAN)
Location:
National Bank of Poland – NBP (Świętokrzyska 11/21, sala im. W. Grabskiego),
Polish Institute of International Affairs – PISM (Warecka 1A, conference room).
The conference will summarise the first decade of the post-accession mobility of Poles. On May 1, 2014 ten years will have passed since the European Union enlargement to Central and Eastern European countries. This event has had significant consequences on many levels, yet one of its most important features was the initiation of intra-EU mobility on a mass scale. This aspect especially concerns Poland which, next to Romania and Bulgaria, became one of the most important migrant sending countries in the EU. Thus, Warsaw seems like the perfect place to discuss the mobility experiences from the past ten years and relate to the heated public debate that, more often than not, is based on stereotypes and misconceptions which have deepened negative attitudes towards mobility and migrants in the past years.
The conference will consist of three sessions. The first (morning) session will be a plenary session organised as a panel discussion of four eminent migration scholars.
In the afternoon, two sessions running in parallel are planed, one related to the economic and one to the political aspects of the contemporary mobility of Poles.
The conference will be held in English. Due to security measures at the National Bank of Poland registration is required and a photo ID will be needed upon entry.
Please register by emailing konferencja.migracje@uw.edu.pl
2013 Year
Warsaw, December 6, 2013, Monetary transmission mechaniam in diverse economies
Analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism is necessary for central banks in order to adequately conduct monetary policy. Especially in the present turbulent times in the global economy, understanding of the effectiveness of the monetary transmission process and its different channels is crucial for monetary policymakers.
The 2013 international workshop on the “Monetary transmission mechanism in diverse economies” initiates a sequence of events on this topic that shall be organized by the National Bank of Poland on regular basis, i.e. every 4 years. The workshop aims to gather the most recent research concerning advances in the theory of the monetary transmission mechanism and empirical studies on the functioning of this mechanism in diverse economies. In particular we would like to address the following research areas:
Structural factors determining the functioning of the monetary transmission mechanism in diverse economies.
Operation of different channels of the monetary transmission mechanism in particular economies and in the cross-country perspective.
Cyclical factors, asymmetries and non-linearities in the analysis of the monetary transmission and its main channels.
The impact of the financial crisis and unconventional or non-standard instruments of monetary policy on the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism; macroprudential regulations and monetary transmission.
The impact of globalization (financial sector, real sector) on the monetary transmission.
Keynote speakers:
Professor Peter Sinclair
Dr Bojan Markovic
Paper submission:
Researchers are invited to submit papers on the above and related topics to be discussed during the workshop. Only complete papers will be considered. They should be sent by e-mail to: mtm@nbp.pl.
The deadline for submissions is 30 September, 2013.
Important dates:
30 September 2013 – paper submission deadline
31 October 2013 – author notification
4 November 2013 – 30 November 2013 – registration
6 December 2013 – workshop
Should you have any questions, please contact: mtm@nbp.pl
Zalesie Gorne (near Warsaw), November 14-15, 2013, Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis
Call for Papers
Narodowy Bank Polski organizes an international workshop to discuss current issues in the field of real estate analysis from the central bank’s point of view. The development of residential real estate prices as well as commercial real estate prices and real estate financing will be covered during the workshop. The workshop is aimed at researchers who work in academia, private firms and central banks. The topics that will be covered during the workshop include, but are not limited to:
Real estate finance, fiscal and monetary policy and the macroeconomic and financial stability – analysis and the monitoring of real estate indicators
Modeling of real estate cycles (demand and supply)
The development of property prices, its modeling and analysis
The following keynote speakers have confirmed their participation in the workshop:
Thomas Knetsch (Bundesbank), Michael Lea (San Diego State University), George Matysiak (University of Reading), Thomas Westermann (ECB), Francesco Zollino (Banca d’Italia),
Submission:
To have a paper considered for inclusion in the workshop, please submit it until September 6, 2013 to: realestateworkshop@nbp.pl
Accommodation:
Narodowy Bank Polski will provide the transport from and to the Warsaw Chopin Airport and the accommodation at the NBP training facility in Zalesie Górne.
Important dates:
September 6, 2013 – paper submission deadline
September 30, 2013 – author notification
From September 30, 2013 – registration
November 14-15, 2013 – workshop
Organizing / scientific committee:
Jacek Łaszek
Tomasz Chmielewski
Hanna Augustyniak
Krzysztof Olszewski
Marta Widłak
In case of any questions please contact:
Martyna Weronika Kuna
Martyna.Kuna@nbp.pl
Phone: +48 22 653 12 75
Mobile: +48 722 050 103
Krzysztof Olszewski
Krzysztof.Olszewski@nbp.pl
Tel: +48 22 653 24 09
Warsaw, 18 October 2013, Unions in the Making Trzecia edycja dorocznej konferencji NBP z cyklu Przyszłość gospodarki europejskiej
The third edition of the annual conference of Narodowy Bank Polski of The Future of the European Economy cycle, this year entitled Unions in the Making, will be held on 18 October 2013 in Warsaw. Admission to the conference is by personal invitation only.
Presentations:
Beck, Thorsten “Banking Union for Europe: Where do we stand?”
Franco, Daniele – Goretti, Chiara „A Fiscal Union in Europe: Why is it possible/impossible?”
Michałek, Jan J. “Economic Union: if fiscal union is possible (?), why not economic union”
Warsaw, 1-5 July 2013, 2nd Summer Workshop of the National Bank of Poland
The Workshop aims at providing a forum for the exchange of ideas between Polish economists affiliated both at prominent foreign institutions and at the domestic ones, including the National Bank of Poland. The participants of the Workshop will present their original work and discuss recent developments in macroeconomics and finance research.
The financial crisis has made us painfully aware that understanding the role of financial markets in the economy and their impact on the macroeconomy is extremely important. Therefore, we make it the main theme of the Workshop. The participants will also debate issues like macroprudential and monetary policy, functioning of financial markets, forecasting, rising inequalities and the labor market.
Working papers
K. Fong, H. Hong, M. Kacperczyk, J.D. Kubik: Do security analysts discipline credit rating agencies
A. Kocięcki: Further results on identification of structural VAR models
B. Grochulski, Y. Zhang: Market-based incentives
K.J. Lansing, A. Markiewicz: Top incomes, rising inequality, and welfare
A. Orlik, L. Veldkamp: Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of the Black Swan
K. Gajewski, M. Pawłowska: What drives bank-firm relationships in Poland? A panel data analysis
Useful information
Participation in the Workshop is free of charge.
The Workshop will be held in English.
Workshop Venue:
The Workshop will take place at the premises of the National Bank of Poland, 11/21 Świętokrzyska Street, Warsaw, room 129F.
Registration:
We kindly ask you to register for the Workshop on line by 25 June 2013.
Programme committee:
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina
Ryszard Kokoszczyński
Krzysztof Makarski
Jan Werner
Organizing committee:
Magdalena Gwizdak
Krzysztof Makarski
Contact:
Magdalena Gwizdak
Phone: +48 22 185 22 97
Mobile: +48 722 066 250
e-mail: workshop@nbp.pl
Warsaw, 7 June 2013, Heterogeneity and multi-country modelling WGEM Workshop
The recent macroeconomic and financial developments have brought to the fore the need for economic analysis and policy making to account for the interdependencies that exist across countries, sectors and markets. In this global scenario, with common and idiosyncratic shocks quickly propagated across borders, there is a twofold need, namely (i) for policy makers to understand and monitor not only national but also international developments as well as different dimensions of heterogeneity, and (ii) for modelers to build tools that assign a prominent role to the international dimension, with countries reacting to foreign developments in heterogeneous ways.
Against this background and in line with the ESBC Working Group on Econometric Modelling (WGEM) work programme for 2013, the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Poland have recently organised a workshop on “Heterogeneity and multi-country modelling”. The workshop, held in Warsaw on 7 June 2013, provided a forum for the discussion of various topics organised in two sessions comprising both theoretical and empirical contributions.
Organising committee:
Michal Brzoza-Brzezina (NBP), Matteo Ciccarelli (ECB), Gunter Coenen (ECB), Marcin Kolasa (NBP)
Downloads:
2012 Year
Warsaw, 29-30 November 2012, Are We Really Forward-looking? Measuring and Testing Expectations – Central Bank Perspective
Expectations are crucial in modern macroeconomics. They are of interest especially to central banks, mainly due to the fact that they can play an important role in the transmission of monetary policy and in the price and wage formation. From this point of view, the degree of forward-lookingness vs. backward-lookingness constitutes a particularly important feature of expectations formation. However, it is often subject to ad hoc assumptions in macroeconomic debates and macroeconomic models alike.
The importance of expectations in modern monetary policy, and wide interest aroused by the 2006 NBP workshop “The role of inflation expectations in modelling and monetary policy making” (9-10 February 2006) – whose contributions were recently published (P. Sinclair, ed., 2010, Inflation Expectations, Routledge) – has inspired the National Bank of Poland to organize another event on a similar topic.
The workshop aims to gather the most recent research concerning advances in the measurement of expectations, empirical testing of expectation formation process, especially the degree of their forward-lookingness, as well as the relevance of direct measures of expectations and empirical assessment of their formation for conducting monetary policy. Although inflation expectations are particularly interesting for central banks, during the workshop we would also like to analyze expectations related to other variables, such as household financial position, unemployment etc.
In particular we would like to address the following research areas:
Measurement of expectations and the use of survey data:
In the long history of expectations measurement, surveys remain the most important source of data. However, we are still learning how to use this instrument to get the most accurate and rich information on people’s beliefs. How do respondents interpret the questions asked? How does the wording of the question affect responses? How should we quantify qualitative data without imposing excessively strong assumptions? How to measure uncertainty of opinions expressed? How to use other sources (e.g. financial market data) to derive measures of inflation expectations?
Formation process of economic expectations:
Empirical studies clearly indicate that economic expectations of agents are neither purely rational nor purely adaptive. During the last decade, increasingly more attention has been attracted to the ideas of sticky information, rational inattention, adaptive learning, or heterogeneity of expectations. Behavioural economics attempts to explain deviations from rational expectations with insights from psychology and experimental evidence. There are studies indicating that non-economic factors, such as personal characteristics or media news, might influence economic agents’ opinions about the future. So, what is the best way to describe expectation formation? What consequences does it involve for the conduct of monetary policy? How should we combine findings from experimental studies and studies based on survey data in assessing formation of expectations?
The impact of the financial crisis on inflation expectations:
The recent financial crisis increased uncertainty of the economic environment and potentially affected inflation expectations properties. What happened to inflation expectations during the crisis? Do we have to distinguish between uncertainty and risk? Are these changes permanent? What are the consequences for monetary policy?
Scientific Committee:
Professor Roy Batchelor, Cass Business School, London
Professor Ryszard Kokoszczyński, University of Warsaw and the National Bank of Poland
Dr Christian Muller, Zurich University of Applied Sciences
Professor Peter Sinclair, University of Birmingham and the Bank of England
Dr Emilia Tomczyk, Warsaw School of Economics
Paper submission:
Researchers are invited to submit papers on the above and related topics to be discussed during the workshop. Only complete papers will be considered. They should be sent by e-mail to: expectations2012@nbp.pl. The deadline for submissions is 15 August, 2012.
Important dates:
15 August 2012 – paper submission deadline
30 September 2012 – author notification
30 September 2012 – 31 October 2012 – registration
29-30 November 2012 – conference
Should you have any questions, please contact: expectations2012@nbp.pl
Programme
8:30 – 9:00 Registration and welcome coffee
9:00 – 9:15 Opening remarks by Andrzej Raczko, Member of the Management Board, National Bank of Poland
9:15 – 10:15
Keynote lecture by Roy Batchelor, Cass Business School, London
Survey Expectations in the New Economics
10:15 – 10:30 Coffee break
10:30 – 12:30
Session 1: Testing sticky information model
Chairperson: Christian Muller, Zurich University of Applied Sciences
News on inflation and the epidemiology of inflation expectations
Author: Damjan Pfajfar, CentER, EBC and University of Tilburg
Co-author: Emiliano Santoro, ITEMQ, Catholic University of Milan and University of Copenhagen
Microdata evidence for imperfect information in inflation expectations
Author: Lena Dräger, University of Hamburg
Co-author: Michael J. Lamla, ETH Zurich and KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Households’ disagreement on inflation expectations and socioeconomic media exposure in Germany
Author: Jan-Oliver Menz, Deutsche Bundesbank
Co-author: Philipp Poppitz, University of Hamburg
Household inflation expectations in the UK: exploiting the cross-sectional dimension
Author: Alina Barnett, Bank of England
Co-authors: Haroon Mumtaz, Bank of England
Matthias Paustian, Bank of England
Silvia Pezzini, Bank of England
12:30 – 13:30 Lunch
13:30 – 14:30
Session 2: Process of expectations formation I
Chairperson: Stefan Palmqvist, Sveriges Riksbank
Are individual survey expectations internally consistent?
Author: Maritta Paloviita, Bank of Finland
Co-author: Matti Viren, Bank of Finland and University of Turku
The role of revisions and uncertainty in professional forecasts
Author: Eva A. Arnold, University of Hamburg
14:30 – 14:45 Coffee break
14:45 – 16:15
Session 3: Process of expectations formation II
Chairperson: Christina Gerberding, Deutsche Bundesbank
How rational are rational expectations? New evidence from well-known survey data
Author: Novella Maugeri, Universita degli Studi di Siena
Beyond Rationality: Understanding Consumers’ Perceptions and Expectations of Inflation
Author: Fabien Curto Millet, Google
Inflation expectations in Poland
Author: Tomasz Łyziak, National Bank of Poland
19:00 Dinner (by invitation)
Friday, 30 November 2012
9:00 – 10:00
Keynote lecture by Peter Sinclair, University of Birmingham and Bank of England
Inflation, inflation expectations and financial stability
10:00 – 10:15 Coffee break
10:15 – 12:15
Session 4: Exploiting density forecasts
Chairperson: Ryszard Kokoszczyński, University of Warsaw and National Bank of Poland
The measurement and behaviour of uncertainty: evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters
Author: Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Co-authors: Joseph Song, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Joseph Tracy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
How informative are the subjective density forecasts of macroeconomists?
Author: Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
Co-authors: Thomas Kostka, European Central Bank
Federico Masera, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Tails of inflation forecasts and tales of monetary policy
Author: Philippe Andrade, Banque de France
Co-authors: Eric Ghysels, University of North Carolina and Kenan-Flagler Business School
Julien Idier, Banque de France and European Central Bank
A new approach to probabilistic surveys of professional forecasters and its application in the monetary policy context
Author: Ewa Stanisławska, National Bank of Poland
Co-authors: Halina Kowalczyk, National Bank of Poland
Tomasz Łyziak, National Bank of Poland
12:15 – 13:15 Lunch
13:15 – 14:45
Session 5: Inflation expectations and monetary policy
Chairperson: Andrzej Sławiński, Director General of the Economic Institute, National Bank of Poland
Monetary policy, banking and heterogeneous agents
Author: Marcin Wolski, University of Amsterdam and University of Bielefeld
Co-author: Cees Diks, University of Amsterdam
Assessing shocks to inflation expectations in a data rich environment
Author: Luca Onorante, European Central Bank
Co-author: Lucia Alessi, European Central Bank
Relevance of survey data on inflation expectations for monetary policy
Author: Christina Gerberding, Deutsche Bundesbank
14:45 – 15:00 Closing remarks by Andrzej Sławiński, Director General of the Economic Institute, National Bank of Poland
Warsaw, 18 October 2012, A Reconfiguration of Europe – The Central and East Europe Perspective
After the advent of the euro zone, it was believed that the introduction of the common currency would enable rapid convergence of the members states’ economies towards a single, fully integrated European economy due to lower interest rates and easy access to markets and savings of the surplus countries. It was expected that the real convergence would be accelerated by the large trade-creation effects. It was also assumed that competition in such a fully integrated European economy would be strong enough to secure a natural coordination of member states’ economic policies, including wage policies.
In reality, the euro zone economies did not converge into a single, fully integrated economy. Thus, competitiveness channel was not strong enough to shield the euro zone from divergences in competitive positions of its member states. The build-up of such differentials was accelerated by unsustainable lending booms in several euro zone economies. This process of divergence in competitive positions might be reverted by increased coordination of economic policies within the euro zone. However, such coordination faces the conflict between the “deep integration” and democratic politics, as was highlighted by Dani Rodrik. This conflict turns the reconfiguring of the institutional structure of the euro zone into a difficult challenge.
The catching-up countries of the Central and Eastern Europe could be the powerhouse of economic growth in the EU. Many of these economies have been severely hit by the global recession and the busts of unsustainable lending booms resulting from the massive foreign-exchange mortgage lending. Nonetheless, the CEE economies still represent a potential that could help to reinvigorate economic growth in Europe. Their strategies of joining the euro zone are different. Some of them have already joined the euro zone. Some plan to do it relatively quickly as they have currency boards. Some decided to preserve for some time the floating exchange rate regime which they regard to be the best mechanism for solving the natural conflict between the nominal and real convergence.
Before the global banking crisis it was assumed that stabilizing inflation was sufficient to stabilize the economy. It was also believed that current account deficits within the euro zone were temporary and reversible as it was assumed that they reflected merely the ongoing real convergence in some member states’ economies. However, the crisis illustrated clearly that external imbalances matter also in a monetary union as they influence prospects for economic growth. This produced a change in the European governance system. Also the experiences with unsustainable lending booms called for using macro-prudential policy as a tool for achieving macroeconomic stabilization. In 2011 the EU adopted the Excessive Imbalances Procedure targeted to cope with macroeconomic imbalances within the euro zone and the EU. However, the procedure is tailored mainly for the developed EU members. The open question remains how the characteristics of the catching-up CEE economies can be accounted for in the process of its implementation.
The euro zone crisis makes it difficult to predict the future course of events in the European economy. Thus, what is needed is a discussion on conditions that should be fulfilled to close the gap between the future of Europe and our previous hopes and expectations.
The conference is a closed event (attendance by invitation only).
Contact: e-mail: conference@nbp.pl.
Downloads:
Warsaw, 13-14 September 2012, Modeling Imbalances 2012 Central Bank Macroeconomic Modeling Workshop
The tradition of the Central Bank Macroeconomic Modeling Workshop (CBMMW) was started in 1998 by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Since then the Workshop was hosted by central banks of Sweden, Canada, the Netherlands, Japan, South Africa, Chile, Norway, Colombia, Israel, the Philippines, the ECB and the Federal Reserve. The 2012 CBMMW will be held in Warsaw, Poland, on September 13-14, 2012, hosted by the National Bank of Poland.
The last few years have especially clearly demonstrated the impact of various sorts of imbalances – current account, financial, fiscal – on economic performance of individual countries as well as of the global economy. These imbalances present a challenge for monetary policy and are important issues for central banks researchers. Hence, the 2012 Workshop will be an opportunity for central banks researchers to discuss the broad range of issues related to macroeconomic imbalances.
Topics of the workshop include but are not limited to:
modelling and identifying imbalances,
including imbalances into macroeconomic models,
policy response to imbalances.
Keynote speeches will be delivered by:
Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements,
Douglas Laxton, International Monetary Fund.
Organizing committee:
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, Grzegorz Grabek, Ryszard Kokoszczyński, Agnieszka Zientara.
Warsaw, 2-13 July 2012, Current Trends in Macroeconomic and Finance Research Financial frictions, macroprudential policy, banking, efficiency of financial markets
The recent financial crisis has been a great challenge for economic science. At the same time it gave a powerful impulse to the development of economics, especially in the fields of macroeconomics and finance. There was an enormous effort of the economic profession to understand the causes, workings and ways of preventing economic crises. The topics of recent research include financial frictions, macroprudential policy, banking, efficiency of financial markets.
The workshop gathers both theoretical and more policy-oriented participants from central banks and academia. Its participants will present and debate recent developments in macroeconomics and finance. The workshop also aims at providing a forum for the exchange of ideas between Polish economists affiliated with domestic and foreign institutions.
Useful information
Participation in the Economic Workshop is free of charge.
Workshop will be held in English.
Workshop Venue:
The workshop will take place at the premises of the National Bank of Poland, Świętokrzyska 11/21, Warsaw, room 254C.
Registration:
Due to limited space, we kindly ask for confirmation of participation by sending an email to workshop@nbp.pl by 26 June 2012 (e-mail should contain first and last name, affiliation, and the dates of attendance).
Programme committee:
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina
Ryszard Kokoszczyński
Krzysztof Makarski
Jan Werner
Organizing committee:
Magdalena Gwizdak
Krzysztof Makarski
Contact:
Magdalena Gwizdak
Phone: +48 22 185 22 97
Mobile: +48 722 066 250
e-mail: workshop@nbp.pl
2009-2011 Years
Warsaw, October 21-22, 2011,Towards a More Integrated and Stable Europe: Challenges Ahead of the Euro Area and Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe
The autumn of 2011 marks the twentieth anniversary of the events which have shaped a new European reality of the last two decades (the emergence of new European states following the disintegration of the former Soviet Union and the former Yugoslavia and the political agreement on the creation of the Economic and Monetary Union). Hence this will be a good opportunity to assess progress achieved so far in the process of economic integration and draw conclusions for the future. In particular, the part of the assessment that relates to future prospects should predominate in the analysis, as the overall goal of the conference is to discuss challenges on the road to a more integrated and stable European economy. In this assessment one should look at both the EU as a whole, and its two different, but intertwined segments: the euro area and CESEE. The economic and financial ties between the western and the eastern parts of the continent do not warrant a flawlessly operating financial system but still they are strong enough to generate contagion effects working in both directions.
Brian Pinto, How do Capital Flows Challenge Monetary Policy in CESEE?
Erdem Basci, How do Capital Flows Challenge Monetary Policy in CESEE?
Jacob A. Frenkel, Global Imbalances and the Euro Zone Crisis
Daniel Gros, Towards a More Integrated and Stable Europe?
Thomas Mayer, Euroland’s hidden balance-of-payments crisis
Tomasz Chmielewski, Andrzej Sławiński, The case for the EU-constrained autonomy of local supervisors
Vito Tanzi, Towards a More Integrated and Stable Europe?
Dariusz Rosati, Fiscal consolidation in EU
Anna Diamantopoulou, Fiscal consolidation
How to cope with the too-big-to-fail problem? (bis.org)
Karnit Flug, How do Capital Flows Challenge Monetary policy: The Case of Israel
September 29-30, 2011, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw, DSGE and beyond – expanding the paradigm in monetary policy research?
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium constitutes nowadays a standard modeling framework for monetary policy analysis. It is commonly accepted and utilized by both central banks and the academia. It serves as a methodological paradigm within which theoretical arguments and empirical investigations are conducted. Simultaneously, the profession recognizes the fact, that the DSGE approach, as we know it today, has substantial limitations. Some of the most urgent issues involve the systematic treatment of heterogeneity, bounded rationality and complex dynamic interactions between economic agents. Estimation issues and computational challenges also arise in this context. Hence, important questions arise:
- What is the future of DSGE models in central banks?
- What are the main advantages and flaws of the current generation of DSGE models and their estimation methods?
- Are agent heterogeneity and complex interactions important for monetary policy analysis?
- Are there any alternative plausible paradigms of macro-modeling?
- Will the mainstream shift towards a more flexible approach like agent-based computational economics?
- What are the consequences of alternative approaches for optimal monetary policy implementation?
Such questions are going to be addressed during the conference, however the scope is not limited to the enlisted issues.
Location and keynote speeches:
The conference will take place in Warsaw, Poland, from Thursday, 29th to Friday, 30th of September 2011.
Keynote speeches will be delivered by:
- Jordi Gali (CREI, UPF and Barcelona GSE),
- Marco del Negro (New York FED).
In case of any questions, please contact: conference2011@nbp.pl
Important dates:
- 30 April 2011 – paper submission deadline
- 31 May 2011 – author notification
- from 31 May 2011 – registration
- 29-30 September 2011 – conference
Conference programme
Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model
Monetary policy transmission in a model with animal spirits and house price booms
Loss aversion and the transmission of monetary policy
Economic policies with endogenous innovation and Keynesian demand management
An agent based approach to interbank networks and monetary policy
Monetary policy in a non-representative agent economy: a survey
Balance-sheet shocks and recapitalizations
Two macro policy instruments: interest rates and aggregate capital requirements
Basel accord and financial intermediation: the impact of policy
Optimal Disinflation under Learning
Imperfect information, optimal monetary policy and the informational consistency principle
March 4, 2011, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw, SUERF/NBP Conference "Monetary Policy after the Crisis"
SUERF and the National Bank and Poland are jointly organising a one day conference entitled “Monetary Policy after the Crisis” to be held at the premises of the National Bank of Poland, Warsaw, on Friday, 4 March, 2011. The conference aims to contribute to the ongoing discussion of important monetary policy-based issues, focussing on inflation targeting, the coordination of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policies and the monetary transmission mechanism.
(This conference is not available for press)
(call for papers closed 26.11.2010).
KEYNOTE SPEAKERS:
Jens Thomsen, Danmarks Nationalbank
Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements
Jens Thomsen, Danmarks Nationalbank download
Co-authors: Matthias Paustian and Tony Yates download
Co-authors: Pietro Catte, Pietro Cova and Ignazio Visco download
Co-authors: Jaromír Baxa and Borek Vašiček download
Did the Federal Reserve’s MBS Purchase Program lower Mortgage Rates?
Presented by Wayne Passmore
Co-author: Diana Hancock
Monetary Policy Transmission Disturbances during the Financial Crisis: a case of an Emerging Market Economy
Presented by Ewa Wróbel
Co-authors: Tomasz Łyziak, Jan Przystupa and Ewa Stanisławska
Are unconventional monetary policies effective?
Presented by Urszula Szczerbowicz download
June 10-11, 2010, Warsaw, Heterogeneous Nations and Globalized Financial Markets: New Challenges for Central Banks
Central banks are facing renewed challenges on several fronts. There are pressures to reverse the dominance of globalized financial markets which appear in conflict with the individual macroeconomic needs of a heterogeneous group of countries. These developments are likely to have a profound effect not only on how monetary policy is delivered but also pose challenges, for example, to the existing canonical New Keynesian model to more formally incorporate a role for the financial sector. Above all, a new regulatory environment may replace the existing financial architecture and this too will represent new challenges for central banks.
TOPICS
Challenges for monetary policy strategies and operations,
The future of financial globalization,
Financial reform and prospects for a renewed international financial architecture,
Are there limits to the relative size of the financial sector?
What future for the New Keynesian canonical macro model?
KEYNOTE SPEAKER:
Geert Bekaert, Leon G. Cooperman Professor of Finance and Economics, Columbia Business School
WEBSITES:
More information on the conference will be available at:
http://www.wiwi.uni-muenster.de/me/workshops/index.html
http://www.wiwi.uni-muenster.de/iif/
ORGANIZING COMMITTEE:
Martin Bohl
(Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster)
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina
(National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics)
Bernd Kempa
(Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster)
Ryszard Kokoszczyński
(National Bank of Poland, Warsaw University)
Pierre Siklos
(Wilfrid Laurier University, Viessmann European Research Centre)
Systemic risks in the banking sector Chairman: Bernd Kempa, Westfälische Wilhelms-University Münster Giovanni Calice (University of Southampton), Christos Ioannidis (University of Bath), Julian Williams (University of Aberdeen)
Credit Derivatives and the Default Risk of Large Complex Financial Institutions
Gabriela Mundaca (Johns Hopkins University)
Monitoring, Liquidity Provisions, and Financial Crises
Credit frictions in monetary models
Chairman: Jacek Kotłowski, National Bank of Poland
Chiara Forlati (Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne), Luisa Lambertini (Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne) Risky Mortgages
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina (National Bank of Poland), Marcin Kolasa (National Bank of Poland), Krzysztof Makarski (National Bank of Poland)
The Anatomy of Standard DSGE Models with Financial Frictions
The role of financial integration Chairman: Pierre Siklos, Wilfrid Laurier University Simone Manganelli (European Central Bank), Alexander Popov (European Central Bank)
Financial Markets, Diversification, and Allocative Efficiency: International Evidence
Séverine Menguy (Université de Paris X-Nanterre)
How to Limit the Moral Hazard Related to a European Stabilization Mechanism
Special session for Ph.D. students
Chairman: Martin Bohl, Westfälische Wilhelms-University Münster
Christian Bredemeier (Technische Universität Dortmund) & Henry Sabrowski (Technische Universität Dortmund)
Sticky Prices vs. Sticky Information: A Cross-Country Analysis of Second Moments
Judith Lischewski (Westfälische Wilhelms-University Münster), Svitlana Voronkova (Centre for European Economic Research)
Size, Value and Liquidity: Do they Really Matter on an Emerging Stock Market?
Limits to financial development and integration
Chairman: Eugeniusz Gatnar, Member of the NBP Management Board
Oscar Becerra (Inter-American Development Bank), Eduardo Cavallo (Inter-American Development Bank), Carlos Scartascini (Inter-American Development Bank)
The Politics of Financial Development: The Role of Interest Groups and Government Capabilities
Andreas Steiner (University of Osnabrück)
Contagious Policies: An Analysis of Spatial Interactions Among Countries’ Capital Account Policies
Warsaw, May 26, 2010, Shaping the Future of the International Monetary System
The recent turmoil in financial markets has clearly exposed more than ever the importance of the international monetary system for the entire world economy. It is perhaps too early to say whether flaws in this system were merely a catalyst of the crisis or were among the key reasons underlying the turmoil. Regardless of the answer, it makes sense to highlight the key developments taking place in this system. Observing the recent trends should help in the process of finding a remedy aimed to convert the system into a kind of a stability pillar which may become extremely useful in overcoming the current problems. Among the issues addressed during at conference sessions, the following ones will be discussed:
A decade has passed since the European Economic and Monetary Union was established. As regards the assessment of the first decade of the EMU much of the attention is being focused on the prospects of eastward expansion of the euro as the new EU entrants are making arrangements to introduce the single currency. However, the impact of euro introduction affects the international monetary system as a whole. First, the performance of the euro on foreign exchange markets reflects the size of risk aversion or appetite for risk. The strengthening of the euro is considered to imply an increase in the global appetite for risk, while the euro depreciation is in most cases associated with an increase in risk aversion. Needless to say, this relationship exerts an enormous influence on policymaking in several parts of the world. Second, the euro implementation – is likely to have encouraged other regions to consider monetary cooperation. In the wake of the recent financial crisis it is worth monitoring the above mentioned events which will most probably shape the future of the international monetary system.
Far East Asia is well known for its tendency to accumulate foreign exchange reserves. This phenomenon is not confined merely to China and Japan. However, the future of the region will depend to a large extent on the action undertaken by these two key players. Will these two countries follow the example of France and Germany in fostering monetary cooperation or will they introduce a new kind of framework which will emphasize the importance of the entire region? Will this cooperation give a strong enough impetus to establish another monetary union? If so, what will its impact be on the international monetary system as a whole? Will a prospective monetary integration make the region less inclined to export capital (often at the expense of domestic economies)? Most recent declarations of China regarding an idea of introducing an alternative to the US dollar may suggest that the vision of the new chapter in the history of international monetary system is already being shaped.
There is a clear link between the EUR/USD exchange rate and oil prices. Most of the key oil exporters have managed to accumulate an impressive amount of foreign exchange reserves. That is why their opinions cannot be ignored. Although Russia has already communicated its agenda to play a more significant role in the global economy, it remains to be seen whether Russian aspiration will be translated into reality. Another important initiative undertaken by the oil exporters is the GCC countries’ plan to strengthen monetary ties. The year 2010 was originally set as a target for the implementation of the monetary union. In the meantime, the introduction date has been re-scheduled and there is no certainty this objective will be accomplished. Most recently, further discrepancies about the final model of the union have emerged. However, as the example of the EMU indicates, these and many other discrepancies can be overcome. If the currency union is introduced there, what will the consequences be for the rest of the world? With much of the oil proven reserves located in the GCC countries, there are arguments which help to justify prospects that suggest that this region will gain importance in the entire international monetary system.
Only a decade ago, anything south of the Rio Grande seemed to embrace the US dollar. Western Hemisphere seemed a natural candidate to become the US-dollar zone. Throughout the last decade, new political factors have emerged which have rendered the prospect of creating a US dollar zone more remote. The recent crisis and growing concerns about the soundness of the US currency give rise to opinions calling for reconsidering the monetary future of the region. A growing share of the euro in the structure of FX reserves in some Latin American states is obvious. However, will this region rely on foreign currencies or will decide to push in the direction of regional cooperation? Venezuela has already announced its intention to establish a monetary union at some time in the future. On the other hand, mounting internal economic problems, as well as high reliance on oil, make this prospect extremely remote. At the same time, Brazil’s growing significance should also be taken into consideration at the time of deliberating about the future of monetary union. Last but not least: what is the US attitude towards the issue? After all, the US is the greatest beneficiary of the international role of the dollar and is not likely to remain indifferent to the potential erosion of the significance of its own currency.
It seems that regional tendencies will prevail in the years to come. Nevertheless, an undertaking aimed to tackle current deficiencies of the system, points in the direction of eventual coordination of activities among its key participants. In recent history of the system, there were episodes when joint cooperation helped overcome large imbalances. The most evident examples was the La Plaza Agreement of September 1985, followed by the Louvre Agreement signed in February 1987. The twenty fifth anniversary of the agreement signed in a New York hotel seems to be a good opportunity to discuss the issue of coordination in the monetary system. In the wake of the current imbalances, are there chances of signing either the La Plaza II or the Louvre II agreement? If so, what conditions must be fulfilled to ensure similar degree of success compared to the one seen in the late eighties of the last century?
Programme
Wednesday, 26 May 2010
Hotel Sheraton, Warsaw
Preliminary programme of the conference
08:00 – 09:00
Registration of participants
09:00 – 09:10
Welcome address
Piotr Wiesiołek – First Deputy President, National Bank of Poland
09:10 – 09:30
Address by the Honorary Guest
Robert A. Mundell, Professor of economics at Columbia University, recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics
09:30 – 11:00 Session I
RECENT TENDENCIES IN THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM
Emergence of “Chimerica” and its impact on the world economy.
Carry trade and repatriation rally.
Are BRIC countries’ currencies to play a dominant role in the system?
Chairman: Witold Koziński – Deputy President, National Bank of Poland
Panelists:
Subir Gokarn – Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India
Eisuke Sakakibara – Professor, Waseda University
Lawrenece Schembri – Chief of International Economic Analysis Department, Bank of Canada
Tiehang Niu– Senior Fellow, China Center for International Economic Exchanges
11:00 – 11:15
Coffee break
11:15 – 12:45 Session II
THE EURO AND ITS INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION
The review of the euro’s role as an international currency. Being second best: curse or blessing in disguise.
Stability at the expense of growth: not very appealing for the rest of the world.
Promoting international role of the euro.
Chairman: Stanisław Gomułka, former Deputy Minister of Finance
Panelists:
Thierry Bracke – Head of the Division ECB
Harold James – Professor of History and International Affairs, Princeton University
David Marsh – Chairman, London and Oxford Group
Wilhelm Noelling – Professor of Political Sciences, University of Hamburg
Adam S. Posen – Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
12:45 – 14:00
Lunch
14:00 – 15:30 Session III
NEW REGIONAL CURRENCY BLOCS
Far East Asia: Is the euro posing a feasible alternative or merely a kind of inspiration?
GCC currency union – inspired by the euro, dependent on dollar?
Americas: from the dollar area into the uncharted territories.
It the era of cheap oil over?
Chairman: Krzysztof Rybiński – former Deputy President, National Bank of Poland; Professor of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics
Panelists:
Fahad Aldossari – Head of Money and Banking Division, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency
Jihad Azour – Vice President – Senior Executive Advisor, Booz and Company
Romulo Martinez – Operations Officer, OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID)
Paweł Olejarnik – Energy Analyst, International Energy Agency
Philip Poole – Global Head of Emerging Markets Research, HSBC
Samir Ranjan Pradhan – Senior Researcher, Gulf Researcher Center
15:30 – 15:45
Coffee break
15:45 – 17:00 Session IV
COORDINATION OF THE SYSTEM: A PRECONDITION FOR OVERCOMING CURRENT PROBLEMS
Was La Plaza a real success or was it a one-off reason for the emergence of the Japanese bubble?
Conditions necessary to ensure world wide coordination of the system.
What are the key factors necessary to view the La Plaza II as a success?
Chairman: Marc Uzan – Executive Director, Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee
Panelists:
Rishi Goyal – Senior Economist, International Monetary Found
Mirosław Gronicki – former Minister of Finance
Ousmene Mandeng – Head of Public Sector Investment Advisory, Ashmore Investment Management Limited UK
Jerzy Osiatyński – former Minister of Finance
17:00 – 17:30
Concluding remarks
Warsaw, November 10, 2009, Global economic crisis and the international monetary system: vulnerabilities and solutions
The international seminar ”Global economic crisis and the international monetary system: vulnerabilities and solutions” organized by the National Bank of Poland will take place on 10th of November, 2009.
November 5-6, 2009, Warsaw, Publishing central bank forecasts in theory and practice
Most central banks with direct inflation targets are communicating their inflation and output forecasts to the public. Some banks have gone one step further by showing their expected future path of interest rates. A comparison of the methods applied by central banks in preparing and releasing their forecasts indicates that in many areas there are no unique solutions. Moreover, the profession is still far from consensus as regards macroeconomic effects of forecasts publication. The conference aims at providing a forum for the presentation and discussion of the research in areas closely related to the best practices in publishing forecasts by central banks. In particular, the following topics will be covered:
- the macroeconomic effects of forecast publication,
- the impact of publishing macroeconomic forecasts on financial markets,
- methods used to prepare macroeconomic forecasts,
- the experience with communicating macroeconomic forecasts to the public.
The special focus of the conference is to provoke discussion on the subject of publishing the future path of interest rates.
Session 1. Publishing Central Bank Forecasts in Practice
Chairman: Ryszard Kokoszczyński, National Bank of Poland
Trends in Monetary Policy Transparency Presented by Petra M. Geraats: University of Cambridge
Communicating monetary policy intentions: The case of Norges Bank
Presented by Ida Wolden Bache: Norges Bank Authors: Amund Holmsen, Jan F. Qvigstad, Øistein Røisland and Kristin Solberg-Johansen
Session 2. On Forecast Accuracy
Chairman: Mateusz Pipień, National Bank of Poland
The Superiority of Greenbook Forecasts and the Role of Recessions
Putting the New Keynesian DSGE Model to the Real-Time Forecasting Test Presented by N. Kundan Kishor: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee: National Bank of PolandPresented by Marcin Kolasa Co-authors:
Michał Rubaszek, Paweł Skrzypczyński A Forecasting Metric for Evaluating DSGE Models for Policy Analysis
Session 3. Central Bank Forward Guidance: Impact on Financial Markets
Chairman: Andrzej Sławiński, National Bank of Poland
Gauging the Effectiveness of Central Bank Forward Guidance Presented by Magnus Andersson Co-author: Boris Hofmann Discussed by Giuseppe Ferrero: Bank of Italy The reception of public signals in financial markets: What if Central Bank Communication Becomes Stale? : European Central Bank
Session 4. Publishing Interest Rate Forecast
Chairman: Aleksander Welfe, University of Lodz & National Bank of Poland Announcement of Future Policy Intentions and Learning
Presented by: Giuseppe Ferrero , Bank of Italy Co-author: Alessandro Secchi Discussed by Jacek Suda, Bank of France
The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable? Presented by Michał Brzoza-Brzezina: National Bank of Poland
Policy Announcements and Welfare Presented by Christian A. Stoltenberg
Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations Presented by Stefan Laséen: Sveriges RiksbankCo-author:Lars E.O. Svensson
November 4, 2009, Warsaw, Experiences and Challenges of Forecasting at Central Banks: One-Day Workshop
Session 1: Forecasting methods
Chairman: Mateusz Pipień Forecasting with Weakly Identified Linear State-Space Models
Presented by: Sebastien Blais, Bank of Canada
Discussed by: Marta Bańbura, European Central Bank
The forecasting properties of a small open economy model with optimal monetary policy
Presented by: Ida Wolden Bache, Norges Bank
Co-authored by: Leif Brubakk, Junior Maih
Discussed by: Abhishek Gupta, Johns Hopkins University
The Asset Pricing Model of Exchange Rate and its Test on Survey Data
Presented by: Anna Naszodi, Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Discussed by: Genaro Sucarrat, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Session 2: Multicountry Models
Chairman: Wojciech CharemzaPredicting Cycles in Economic Activity
Presented by: Jane Haltmaier, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Discussed by: Boriss Siliverstovs, Swiss Economic Institute KOF
The OENB-forecast for Central and Eastern European Countries
Presented by: Julia Woerz, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Co-authored by: Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma, Martin Feldkircher, Tomas Slacik
Discussed by: Jan Przystupa, National Bank of Poland
Session 3: Forecast uncertainty
Chairman: Jacek OsiewalskiA non-parametric, model-based approach to uncertainty and risk analysis of macroeconomic forecasts
Presented by: Stefano Siviero, Banca d’Italia
Co-authored by: Claudia Miani
Discussed by: Malte Knueppel, Bundesbank
An application of the Choleskilized multivariate distributions for constructing inflation ‘fan charts’
Presented by: Svetlana Makarova, University College London
Co-authored by: Wojciech Charemza, Piotr Jelonek
Discussed by: Mateusz Pipień, Cracow University of Economics and National Bank of Poland
Fan charts of inflation and GDP growth projections
Presented by: Bartosz Rybaczyk, National Bank of Poland
Co-authored by: Michał Greszta, Karol Murawski
Discussed by: Wojciech Charemza, University of Leicester
Warsaw, June 5-6, 2009, 20 years after the collapse of the socialist economy. Transformation, economic growth and convergence in Poland and other Central and Eastern European countries
The message of the conference
The fall of socialist economy in Poland and in other Central and Eastern European countries in 1989 marked the beginning of profound socio-economic transformations which have led over the past 20 years to the formation of democratic societies in this part of the world. Consequently, the political, social and economic maps of Europe, and indeed the entire world, have changed. There was an acceleration of the European integration process which embraced the majority of countries in the region. While it was necessary to incur considerable social and economic costs to carry out the process of transformation, Central and Eastern European countries would have preserved ineffective structures prolonging stagnation and poverty, if they had not borne the costs. The reforms and transformations that have been implemented can, therefore, be perceived not only as a road to freedom, but also as a road to improved living standards.
The Conference, organized on the 20th anniversary of the first free elections in Poland, which may be seen as a symbol of the fall of the socialist system, will be devoted to the evaluation of transformations carried out in Poland and other Central and Eastern European countries in the past two decades. Our goal is also to look at the role the countries of our region play in the international arena. The Conference will also provide an opportunity to exchange views on the problems and challenges the Central and Eastern European countries are facing today.
Conference Program
5 June 2009 (Friday)
8.00 – 9.00
Registration of participants
9.00 – 9.10
Welcome address:
Sławomir S. Skrzypek, President of the National Bank of Poland
9.10 – 9.30
Address by the Honorary Guest:
Lech Kaczyński, President of the Republic of Poland
9.30 – 9.50
Address by the Honorary Guest:
Vaclav Klaus, President of the Czech Republic
9.50 – 10.10
Address by the Honorary Guest:
Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank
10.10 – 10.30
Address by the Honorary Guest:
Joaquín Almunia, Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs
10.30 – 11:00
Coffee break
11.00 – 11:15
Introductory address by
prof. Zbigniew Hockuba, Chairman of the Organizing Committee,Member of the Board, National Bank of Poland
11.15 – 12.30
Session I
Transformation and economic growth in Central and Eastern European countries after 1989 – evaluation
Chairman of the session:
Leszek Balcerowicz, Warsaw School of Economics
Panelists:
Anders Aslund, Peterson Institute for International Economies
Yegor Gaidar, Director of the Institute for the Economy in Transition
Janos Kornai, Collegium Budapest, Institute for Advanced Study
Radovan Jelasić, Governor of the Narodna banka Srbije
12.30 – 13.45
Session II
Economies of Central and Eastern Europe in the international arena – convergence perspective in view of the global recession
Chairman of the session:
Marek Belka, Director, International Monetary Fund
Panelists:
Eric Berglöf, Chief Economist, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Willem Buiter, London School of Economics
Justin Yifu Lin, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, World Bank
Alojzy Z. Nowak, Chairman of the Scientific Council, National Bank of Poland
13.45 – 15.00
Lunch
15:00 – 16:15
Session III
Economies of Central and Eastern Europe and the euro
Chairman of the session:
Adam Glapiński, Counsellor to the President, Chancellery of the President of the Republic of Poland
Panelists:
Marko Kranjec, Governor of the Banka Slovenije
András Simor, Governor of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Ivan Sramko, Governor of the Národná banka Slovenska
Jürgen Stark, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
16:15 – 16:30
Coffee break
16:30 – 17:45
Sesja IV
Ten years of inflation targeting strategy in Poland compared with the experience of other countries
Chairman of the session:
Zbigniew Hockuba, Member of the Board, National Bank of Poland
Panelists:
Vittorio Corbo, former President of Banco Central de Chile
Dariusz Filar, Member of the Monetary Policy Council, National Bank of Poland
Svein Gjedrem, Governor of the Norges Bank
Stefan Ingves, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank
Zdeněk Tůma, Governor of the Česká národní banka
6 June 2009 (Saturday)
11:00 – 13:00
Promotion of collector coin – “Poland’s Road to Freedom 1989 – 2009”, Łazienki Palace
Welcome address by
Sławomir S. Skrzypek, President of the National Bank of Poland
Address by
Lech Kaczyński, President of the Republic of Poland
Address by
Prof. Richard Pipes, Harvard University
14.00
Closing of the Conference
Organisers
The conference will be held under the honorary patronage of Lech Kaczyński, President of the Republic of Poland
Honorary Program Council
Sławomir S. Skrzypek – Chairman of the Honorary Program Council, President of the National Bank of Poland
Anders Aslund – Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Olivier Blanchard – Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics
Willem Buiter – London School of Economics
Yegor Gaidar – Director of the Institute for the Economy in Transition
Vaclav Klaus – President of the Czech Republic
Douglass C. North – Washington University in Saint Louis
Jean-Claude Trichet – President of the European Central Bank
Organizing Committee
Zbigniew Hockuba, Chairman of the Committee, Member of the Board, National Bank of Poland
Wioletta Barwicka, Deputy Director, Office of the President, National Bank of Poland
Stanisław Gorący, Advisor to the President, National Bank of Poland
Paweł Samecki, Member of the Board, National Bank of Poland